Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5e9c7b8903121794dfdcaf0abe963d497ee596eb7a93d4ae15b45bc9a0086ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 1c | 6,135$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,466$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.32 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 5c | 2,560$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,342$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 9c | 2,032$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.23 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 2c | 1,295$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,080$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,049$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 3c | 887.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 9c | 625.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 7c | 539.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 417.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 346.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 342.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 7c | 329.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 6c | 305$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…7d0abacked Yes | 4c | 299.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 4c | 252.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 4c | 248.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 237.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 15c | 234.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 231.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 13c | 202.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 189.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 181$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 15c | 151.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 14c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 138.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…4134backed No | 80c | 126.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 19c | 106.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 15c | 96.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 88.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 26.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…0e39backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.