Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67e17fda24b0a4dd52fa4189ad5c4a63a4b7490d21702d0b110f9cfd27c8e141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 51c | 2,819$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.18 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 29c | 1,380$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.57 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 55c | 1,250$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.85 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 778.4$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 766.16$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.04 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 66c | 666.47$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.9 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 20c | 603.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.57 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 23c | 534.88$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.31 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 518.27$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 38c | 514.64$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 74c | 501.98$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.04 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 63c | 476.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 476.02$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 6c | 467.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 434.72$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 72c | 418.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 381.22$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 371.72$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.87 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Yes | 44c | 335.47$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 15c | 333.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.31 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 70c | 317.28$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.02 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…9300backed Yes | 31c | 313.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 276.87$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 275.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 269.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 39c | 262.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.85 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 24c | 262.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 251.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.12 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 45c | 239.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…ff0bbacked No | 46c | 237.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…5645backed No | 35c | 223.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 20c | 214.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.42 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 32c | 205.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.47 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 203.38$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 72c | 203.12$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 65c | 189.24$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 186$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 158$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 155$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 17c | 153.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 152.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 74c | 151.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 77c | 136.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 59c | 130.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 128.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 79c | 126.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 122.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 119.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 38c | 117.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 43c | 110.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 109.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 37c | 109.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 107.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 106.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 103.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 103.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 25c | 102$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 66c | 101.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 80c | 101.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 29c | 101.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 99.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 22c | 97.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 97.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked No | 78c | 95.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 95.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 92.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 76c | 92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 89.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 88.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 87.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed No | 32c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…8c3ebacked Yes | 71c | 84.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…d05dbacked No | 74c | 83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 82.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 81.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…2de6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf8…065ebacked Yes | 74c | 79.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 32c | 78.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…5ce4backed No | 37c | 74.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 19c | 72.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 72.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 72.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed Yes | 33c | 70.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 64c | 70.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 24c | 68.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 75c | 67.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…b425backed Yes | 22c | 67.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +351.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 75c | 66.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.