TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes51c2,819$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.1845130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes29c1,380$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.5716724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes55c1,250$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.851,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No39c778.4$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.235,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No29c766.16$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.042,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No66c666.47$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.939966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf270…3c46backed Yes20c603.34$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.573831.6%12 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes23c534.88$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.319425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c518.27$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb33…19d9backed Yes38c514.64$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.156437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes74c501.98$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0416840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes63c476.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.8589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No67c476.02$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.933,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No6c467.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.483,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c434.72$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes72c418.6$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.615570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c381.22$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes31c371.72$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.8740237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Yes44c335.47$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.991145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes15c333.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.3110445.2%47 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed No70c317.28$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.026358.7%37 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x195e…9300backed Yes31c313.26$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.47837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c276.87$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.345,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes12c275.18$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.792,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No33c269.05$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.891,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes39c262.34$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.851,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No24c262.21$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes17c251.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.121,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes45c239.49$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.4485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a6…ff0bbacked No46c237.54$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.952070%14 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…5645backed No35c223.04$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.451118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…8b39backed Yes20c214.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.422128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+74.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes32c205.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c203.38$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.564,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes72c203.12$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.361365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes14c200$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17215717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No65c189.24$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.411,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c186$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.843,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes36c158$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.381,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c155$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.214,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes17c153.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.94734%16 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c152.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.012,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes74c151.66$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes13c150$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No77c136.36$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4511164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes59c130.34$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4757044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c128.57$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.131,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes79c126.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9612147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No35c122.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.231,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No31c119.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes38c117.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3618534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No13c115$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3295852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No43c110.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1222945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No77c109.83$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7827376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes37c109.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.49425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c107.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.998,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes21c106.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.972,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c103.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c103.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes25c102$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked No66c101.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.525946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes80c101.92$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.689661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes29c101.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7117443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.964367.4%29 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6429953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3728…a76dbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.995726.3%15 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes16c99.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes28c99.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4940025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No26c99.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.437,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes22c97.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1617926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c97.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c97$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.295,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d8…dfebbacked No78c95.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.714057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No79c95.13$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c92.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.92,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No76c92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6821268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No64c89.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.292,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No77c88.49$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c87.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.463,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972a…aee7backed No32c86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.85547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c00…8c3ebacked Yes71c84.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0173…d05dbacked No74c83$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.361770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c82.16$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.741,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No71c81.91$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.541,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb4…2de6backed Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf8…065ebacked Yes74c79.8$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.46540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes32c78.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7411334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes34c76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2205…5ce4backed No37c74.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-76.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19bc…eae5backed No19c72.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.154520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No21c72.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No60c72.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.541,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6248…27f6backed Yes33c70.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.113053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes64c70.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6225839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes28c70$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.481848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes24c68.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3421236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes75c67.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0827246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x079e…b425backed Yes22c67.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+351.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No75c66.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2111257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.