Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4452266634144bfed32ce23ff6293f63ef206dc68e9c96bd6db3bb46d268792e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked No | 51c | 1,170$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.56 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 961.93$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…2b8abacked Yes | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…b6e0backed No | 73c | 747.95$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 575.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 10c | 527.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 17c | 472.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 469.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 34c | 464.36$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 17c | 428.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 16c | 413.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 409.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes | 50c | 341.06$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 316.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 22c | 298.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 37c | 293.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 292.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 276.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…e011backed Yes | 6c | 253.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 35c | 251.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 16c | 239.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 9c | 231.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 227.24$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 11c | 220.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 194.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 64c | 186.04$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 19c | 155.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked No | 74c | 151.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 135.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 23c | 130.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 35c | 129.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 127.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 42c | 126.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 62c | 120.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 12c | 118.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…6a56backed Yes | 19c | 118.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 117.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 36c | 115.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 66c | 114$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 11c | 113$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…9840backed Yes | 34c | 111.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 44c | 109.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 108.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 106.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 13c | 104.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 29c | 104.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 34c | 102.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7827…a351backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 33c | 98.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 11c | 96.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 73.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 28c | 73.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 38c | 73.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 35c | 70.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed Yes | 15c | 67.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 45c | 66.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 65.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 72c | 64.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes | 34c | 63.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b63…bd8cbacked No | 51c | 60.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 43c | 57.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…5645backed Yes | 22c | 56.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 42c | 56.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 77c | 56.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…f354backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 73c | 47.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…c123backed Yes | 32c | 47.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 74c | 46.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee3…2daabacked Yes | 33c | 45.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…7bc1backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.