TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,298 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x302c…abcebacked No51c1,170$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.5616724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes15c961.93$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.939,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ce0…2b8abacked Yes49c800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9107…b6e0backed No73c747.95$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.46666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c575.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.192,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf270…3c46backed Yes10c527.73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.53831.6%12 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes17c472.31$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3125946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes5c469.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.533,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes34c464.36$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes17c428.05$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked Yes16c413.68$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1211164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c409.53$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.765,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes50c341.06$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes22c316.45$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.141,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes22c298.02$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes37c293.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.717140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes14c292.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes14c276.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe68d…e011backed Yes6c253.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes35c251.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.452,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes16c239.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.731124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes9c231.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No74c227.24$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.016,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes11c220.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9111835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes15c194.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No64c186.04$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.798361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes35c160$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5621847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes19c155.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked No74c151.67$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.061145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes38c140$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No56c135.19$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.114,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes23c130.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes35c129.63$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.681,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c127.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.61,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes42c126.3$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.617926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes15c126$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No62c120.68$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes12c118.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.721,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42bf…6a56backed Yes19c118.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c117.42$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes36c115.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7229732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No66c114$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes11c113$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.943619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ef…9840backed Yes34c111.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes25c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.640025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes44c109.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes28c108.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.217,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c106.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes13c104.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5934533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes29c104.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.791,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes27c103$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7813941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes34c102.3$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7412941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.233740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes33c98.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.724734%16 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes11c96.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes25c94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.532738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.343,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes26c76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7633139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes31c73.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.865,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes28c73.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.678337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4760…9899backed Yes38c73.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4148…d2f6backed Yes35c70.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes35c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c69$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.693,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed Yes15c67.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0325258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes45c66.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9314043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No76c65.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c0…a805backed No72c64.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.257558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.289,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes34c63.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.943560%21 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b63…bd8cbacked No51c60.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.91850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes43c57.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…5645backed Yes22c56.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes42c56.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.983218.8%6 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed No77c56.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0914744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes28c50.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1344945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.516045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea19…f354backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.57659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No73c47.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6622853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0cb…c123backed Yes32c47.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No74c46.86$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3311257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee3…2daabacked Yes33c45.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No64c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.646452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ab…8e21backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.983562.9%22 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2749…e996backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105225%13 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9515843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1330565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39b6…7bc1backed No68c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No69c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5883459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.