TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,728 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x162e…fe52backed No58c3,815$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,231.484037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No14c811.01$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5760121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes45c536.04$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.8116437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c498.39$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.271,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes44c416.91$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.735427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes58c399.12$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6810843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes44c362.1$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.5610642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes56c344.96$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.087146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No57c339.7$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7618041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac45…844fbacked Yes64c326.11$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.663423.5%8 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes61c325.19$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.334738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c316.72$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes79c316.09$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2919047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes42c314.21$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.4520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes47c293.46$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.745238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No47c288.97$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.413,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes57c273.79$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.023339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c273.62$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.535,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes46c258.11$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.215846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes45c254.22$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.888643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed No54c249.97$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.985547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed No25c249.96$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4913728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes42c241.57$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.321,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes42c237.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No56c234.96$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No54c212.88$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.266944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes66c198.52$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.22,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes46c195.67$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.664037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes45c191.9$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9327047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes43c190.31$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.352544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No52c188.5$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9848743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9df…1e41backed Yes71c165.54$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.772937.9%11 W · 18 L-6.1wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-41.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes55c155.95$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0954154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No62c155.46$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes46c154.81$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.331,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf45d…4039backed Yes48c147.81$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes43c142.07$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.645148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes61c141.01$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes39c140.07$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7513424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes42c139.68$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.611,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1bd…b85abacked No29c139.15$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.893259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No47c138.22$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.174,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No55c136.26$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.461,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes43c133.12$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.595635.7%20 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No59c130.6$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6133567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No26c129.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked Yes76c128.2$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.592321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No57c126.21$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.642,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0199…737abacked Yes46c123.8$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.05955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes48c123.65$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.39443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes49c116.14$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.218534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes41c114.46$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.41526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No56c112.07$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.768361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b1…339ebacked Yes43c110.54$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.41450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes74c110.12$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6220161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes42c109.09$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.136823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes43c108.48$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5511646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No62c105.29$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.958138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5925742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa128…541ebacked No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes41c99.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.996041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd516…5d04backed No55c99.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+117.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c99.96$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.971,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f7…4bf0backed Yes58c99.63$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.171145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes36c97.5$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6219541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee4…c3b9backed Yes39c95.23$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No60c95.16$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7434250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes40c94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.43324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes43c91.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes38c90.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4711835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c89.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.793,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes61c88.26$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7452533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes60c86.6$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.612045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No58c86.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9917855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes43c85.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.31637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No61c84.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.723,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes47c82.15$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.173,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes52c81.45$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.813855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b42…258fbacked Yes46c81.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Yes46c80$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.26041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes45c79.01$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.124139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe445…8750backed No54c76.67$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.42321.7%5 W · 18 L-5.8wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-55.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes65c75.65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.432147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes76c74.69$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5635465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No57c74.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.542,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes36c72.96$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No50c71.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.931,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb006…753dbacked Yes38c70.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.771040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No33c70.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc629…c3e5backed Yes38c69.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.85825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes49c69.39$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No53c69.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.878551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec83…7014backed Yes40c68.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.392528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes46c67.46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.116657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes38c62.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.847736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes45c62.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9726434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes46c61.23$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8452444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.