TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,742
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,742 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x162e…fe52backed Yes26c1,987$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.564037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked No79c1,156$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.7710843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c740.11$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.671,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No77c614.17$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.813,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes19c405.3$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2260121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes32c380.11$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3217135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c376.68$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes19c334.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3530919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06d7…af53backed Yes23c300$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No67c297.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked Yes11c286.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.522568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes11c274.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.972,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0199…737abacked Yes33c272.37$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.73955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes23c271.2$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.125,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes15c254.68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1120534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes8c252.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.145626.8%15 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+54.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7716…43b6backed Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403821.1%8 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No75c216.53$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0818041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xded8…ae40backed No72c216.5$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.543333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes21c214.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.721,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c211.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.755,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes25c204.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2413424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No45c200.46$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.2111925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes8c199.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc044…3576backed Yes5c192.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes23c188.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.745846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No80c178.88$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.431,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes20c178.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes23c177.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.229,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No78c174.38$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.92,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b96…3a38backed Yes20c171.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.74933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c170.49$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.774,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes13c169.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0528718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes25c169.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.271,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes18c164.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1615545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked No79c162.62$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.156376.2%48 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes19c162.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0613728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes24c153.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.961,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c150.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.249038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes18c140$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c138.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.393,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed Yes25c135.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.58551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa045…282abacked Yes38c133.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.583056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes24c130.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes12c120$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.516437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b0…5676backed Yes24c117.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7150%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes16c117.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.171,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46e…2f80backed Yes25c116.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes18c114.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes19c114.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7211129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c109.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.237,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes23c108.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.545944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5112638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf45d…4039backed Yes22c98.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.14812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb06…adccbacked Yes19c98.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b34…8208backed Yes18c97.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.591127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes23c92.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0328517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes21c92.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.052544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes19c91.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8747432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No76c90$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9527771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ea…6b1abacked Yes20c88.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.92922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74df…e179backed Yes18c88.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No79c88.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.313,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1add…a268backed Yes25c85.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.055248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes22c83.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4415749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes44c83.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.949239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…c3e5backed Yes28c82.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes26c81.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.212944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes26c80.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.352533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes34c78.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes20c76.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6616320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes25c71.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes26c71.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.352133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e7…04a6backed Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes23c69.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes19c68.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3817138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c68.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes22c68.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.836823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes25c67.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7956131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7843…fd3cbacked Yes39c66.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes25c64.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.077736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes24c61.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7914632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54f9…cef2backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb8…9b79backed Yes22c59.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42eb…a02dbacked Yes24c57.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No69c57.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes33c56.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.573855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes20c56.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.421,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No71c54.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.592,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes26c52.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8211646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c7…2b48backed Yes36c52.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.711225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes22c52.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4416530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No75c50.43$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4649854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ebc…6f63backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-88.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.