Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf1d64e392c8dd3856b2ad054fc18b14c8cad8e6c97776bd90a697c0b34c6d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 0c | 4,017$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 59c | 1,825$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.95 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 50c | 1,318$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.46 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 6c | 1,072$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 61c | 1,037$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.71 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 869.09$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 15c | 762.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 39c | 705$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.52 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 696.81$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 47c | 642.86$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.11 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked No | 46c | 632.98$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 556.96$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 519.41$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.69 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…a1d1backed Yes | 55c | 455.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 443.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 429.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 37c | 416.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.76 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 48c | 410.81$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.95 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 46c | 399.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.49 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 375.19$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 354.69$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 55c | 348.7$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 59c | 343.15$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 333$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…523bbacked Yes | 67c | 331.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 57c | 320$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 30c | 312.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 62c | 306.1$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 49c | 296.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 48c | 282.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 262.1$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 253.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 59c | 247.27$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.06 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 240.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 53c | 231.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 21c | 224.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 224.13$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 56c | 220.03$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 51c | 212.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 39c | 210$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.05 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 53c | 209.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 44c | 206.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.15 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 52c | 203.86$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed No | 79c | 202.27$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…2dc8backed No | 53c | 199.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 52c | 189.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 61c | 187$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 49c | 182.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 56c | 178.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 44c | 170.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc616…3571backed Yes | 56c | 170$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 168.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 166.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 165$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed Yes | 61c | 164.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 50c | 158.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed No | 62c | 158.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 156.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 52c | 153.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 152.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 150$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 67c | 149.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 41c | 148.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 45c | 146.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 53c | 141.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 132.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bf…cb5abacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 56c | 128.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked No | 76c | 126.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes | 55c | 125.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 43c | 124.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 56c | 122.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 120.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed No | 50c | 119.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 119.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 20c | 118.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d5…ff97backed Yes | 67c | 116.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 37c | 115.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 34c | 112.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 65c | 105.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 58c | 103.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 59c | 101.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 101.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 31c | 96.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 42c | 90.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 41c | 89.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…f161backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.