TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,644 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6409…9411backed No0c4,017$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8982562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes59c1,825$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.9542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes50c1,318$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.4610843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No6c1,072$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.226253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x840a…63ccbacked Yes61c1,037$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.712540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes16c869.09$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.042,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No15c762.69$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.972222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a91…983fbacked No39c705$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.5213942.4%59 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes79c696.81$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.945,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No47c642.86$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.1112762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked No46c632.98$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.171353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No40c556.96$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.42,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No36c519.41$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.691,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b4…a1d1backed Yes55c455.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c443.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No52c429.99$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.471,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes37c416.79$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.7656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes48c410.81$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.951,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17612941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No46c399.99$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.495158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No58c375.19$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.81,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No55c354.69$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.712,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes55c348.7$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.2621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes59c343.15$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.434940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c333$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.78,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5d1…523bbacked Yes67c331.99$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes57c320$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.611249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No30c312.1$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1155855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes62c306.1$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9361929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1355846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes49c296.52$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5210642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No48c282.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.527558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c262.1$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.754,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No44c253.7$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.643,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef12…8e61backed Yes59c247.27$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.064231%13 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c240.4$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.851,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes53c231.6$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8439427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes21c224.37$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3725344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No56c224.13$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes56c220.03$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes51c212.18$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.764533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes39c210$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.053324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No53c209.75$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1819060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes44c206.34$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes52c203.86$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.525940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed No79c202.27$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes55c200$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e1c…2dc8backed No53c199.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes52c189.43$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.124738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes61c187$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2254154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe188…197bbacked Yes49c182.5$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.898536.5%31 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes56c178.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3710141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No44c170.14$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4228737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc616…3571backed Yes56c170$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes58c168.2$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.392,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No51c166.84$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.482,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c165$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.073,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed Yes61c164.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.575164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes50c158.73$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1311646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f46…06f0backed No62c158.23$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.024030%12 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes38c156.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes52c153.05$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.093,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes42c152.79$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.611,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c150$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.52,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes67c149.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.894257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes41c148.68$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.763333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes45c146.92$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4632132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked Yes53c141.33$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9829751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No58c132.06$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.792,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bf…cb5abacked No77c129.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No56c128.36$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4261752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440c…8dccbacked No76c126.06$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.229635.4%34 W · 62 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes55c125.5$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.381637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes43c124.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.945648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes56c122.46$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.939744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes25c120.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…7104backed Yes25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed No50c119.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.592857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.145238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No52c119.02$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.443,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No20c118.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.741,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d5…ff97backed Yes67c116.97$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.97812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick54cpaid-81.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No37c115.62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No34c112.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.72,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.413424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No65c105.23$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes58c103.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.082147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No59c101.78$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c101.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6311835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4012638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.482828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.049,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes31c96.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.913636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes53c95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6516437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa598…2ff3backed No42c90.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.11742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes41c89.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4235133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x553a…f161backed Yes56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.