Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc53415631f5b9c6df6eaad4911d273fd87fec5f01d03b820d36e31d3f23209e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9548…655fbacked Yes | 76c | 375.78$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 8c | 370.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 321.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 66c | 285.22$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 67c | 260.6$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 251$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 6c | 239.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 6c | 202.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 32c | 200.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 48c | 146.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 71c | 142.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 129.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 66c | 107.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 47c | 97.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 90.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 89.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 65c | 89.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 37c | 87.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 57c | 86.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 59c | 85.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 60c | 82.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 32c | 79.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed Yes | 63c | 79.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 20c | 78.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…1635backed Yes | 57c | 76.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 74.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x23ee…741dbacked Yes | 69c | 72.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 71c | 70.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 49c | 69.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 63c | 63.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 61.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…427abacked No | 42c | 57.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 22c | 56.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 34c | 55.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 70c | 54.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 59c | 50.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…36f4backed Yes | 78c | 40.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 39.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 44c | 39.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1032backed No | 41c | 38.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 36.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 34c | 36.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…38adbacked Yes | 48c | 35.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 32.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 72c | 25.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 66c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…a221backed Yes | 70c | 23.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 70c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…cf4dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…a597backed No | 51c | 19.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 55c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 68c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 19.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 65c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 67c | 16.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.