Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb13001039ffa210d100a4fb8260db2e3da9f7a6d8e3d9f8c7772ded50b44fa0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 2c | 1,078$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked Yes | 31c | 841.53$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.08 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 76c | 343.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 339$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 17c | 281.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 32c | 252.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 240.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 234.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 224.14$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 16c | 216.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 49c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 22c | 189.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 168$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 154.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 150.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 114.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 113$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 28c | 104.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 29c | 97.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…a95cbacked Yes | 26c | 96.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 89.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 19c | 74.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 38c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 72c | 67.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 23c | 63.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 61.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 44c | 59.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 27c | 59.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 57.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…655fbacked Yes | 42c | 57.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 75c | 52.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 79c | 50.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 49.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 46.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 46.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…dce1backed Yes | 25c | 45.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 30c | 42.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 52c | 37.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 34.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 70c | 34.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 32.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 32.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 30.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 25.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 80c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 77c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed No | 76c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 77c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.