Tennis · resolved market
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b6c796e6efe0a2436b8eb626ff05e278a6741217211125f5d1a1ed7533fa045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 1c | 10,328$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 22c | 2,841$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.98 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…29eebacked Yes | 63c | 2,838$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,529$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.56 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Yes | 64c | 2,529$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.58 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 37c | 2,000$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 36c | 820.13$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.25 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 18c | 809.67$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Yes | 62c | 600$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Yes | 64c | 586.25$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.05 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 21c | 473.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.65 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Yes | 17c | 376.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +471.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 17c | 335.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 37c | 176.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…c0e7backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 63c | 157.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…0fedbacked Yes | 61c | 144.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab9…3f5fbacked Yes | 64c | 141.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…fd36backed Yes | 19c | 138.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 77c | 134.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…67a5backed Yes | 19c | 129.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Yes | 62c | 105.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…2cc0backed Yes | 62c | 87.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yes | 60c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed Yes | 63c | 69.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…ed1bbacked Yes | 73c | 67.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked Yes | 62c | 53.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2d…46abbacked Yes | 62c | 48.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Yes | 63c | 47.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 64c | 47.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…2d9fbacked No | 39c | 44.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…2077backed Yes | 63c | 31.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…5533backed Yes | 64c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed Yes | 46c | 30.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Yes | 61c | 27.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ff…d049backed Yes | 62c | 24.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…eb2abacked Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d47cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jack Draper win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?this page
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.