TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0ab9…3f5f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Music, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Music at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UAB vs. St. Joseph'sbacked St. Joseph's · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Kent State vs. St. Bonaventurebacked St. Bonaventure · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
St. Francis (PA) vs. Alabama Statebacked Alabama State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$90.44
UMBC vs. UMass Lowellbacked UMass Lowell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+38.9%+$33.06
Navy vs. Colgatebacked Colgate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+37%+$16.64
Wofford vs. VMIbacked Wofford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+40.8%+$20.42
Nevada vs. Colorado Statebacked Colorado State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+53.6%+$29.47
Kent State vs. Bowling Greenbacked Kent State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+35.5%+$27.32
Lehigh vs. Bucknellbacked Bucknell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+46.4%+$56.14
Louisville vs. Notre Damebacked Louisville · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST+31.6%+$17.05
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick71cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blues vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$34.32
Penguins vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$141
Bruins vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$29.36
Ducks vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$43.31
Flames vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$47.91
Flyers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$51.72
Sharks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$125
All 7 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2025, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mallorca Championships: Moutet vs. Altmaierbacked Moutet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$30.94
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+56.9%+$51.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+29.9%+$11.5
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$63.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.2
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle United win the 2024 Carabao Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Beyonce be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+376.2%+$142.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+56.3%+$14.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rajasthan Royals vs. Mumbai Indiansbacked Mumbai Indians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$22.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.