MLB · resolved market
Cubs vs. Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc52d05e3b92948dc6bdb00368f724cfde2ba0f8f48b487c2ba5f800a9bfed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Cubs, Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Pirates | 54c | 7,000$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Cubs | 46c | 5,650$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,047.06 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cubs | 43c | 2,783$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.19 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Cubs | 46c | 2,548$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.92 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pirates | 58c | 2,478$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.12 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Cubs | 41c | 2,328$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.78 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Cubs | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.69 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Cubs | 46c | 2,026$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.08 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pirates | 60c | 2,000$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.68 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pirates | 57c | 1,511$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.13 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pirates | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Cubs | 46c | 740$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 55c | 717.01$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.32 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cubs | 45c | 669$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.98 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Cubs | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cubs | 44c | 434.1$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cubs | 48c | 417$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.84 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Cubs | 49c | 400$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Pirates | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pirates | 4c | 319.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cubs | 46c | 280$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cubs | 41c | 277.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.59 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…437cbacked Cubs | 42c | 233.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…5f97backed Cubs | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cubs | 46c | 185.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pirates | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pirates | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Pirates | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -6.2wins | -0.45per pick | 52cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pirates | 46c | 178.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Pirates | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Cubs | 43c | 126.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cubs | 40c | 107$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Pirates | 40c | 90.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab9…3f5fbacked Pirates | 69c | 71.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Cubs | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Cubs | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Cubs | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Cubs | 42c | 45.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pirates | 53c | 42.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pirates | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 42c | 36.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cubs | 45c | 36.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Pirates | 55c | 36.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Cubs | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Pirates | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cubs | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cubs | 42c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Pirates | 53c | 22.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Cubs | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Pirates | 58c | 17.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.