Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisville vs. Notre Dame
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa4126eb0f8361388b0d197ef382925f1f070d3a7c5d288e804ee2b0a479d289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisvilleof Louisville, Notre Dame
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Notre Dame | 15c | 1,336$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Notre Dame | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Notre Dame | 24c | 499.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…8e5abacked Louisville | 69c | 441.58$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…e4eabacked Louisville | 75c | 381.95$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Notre Dame | 25c | 329.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Notre Dame | 26c | 204.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…66b7backed Notre Dame | 12c | 142.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…93b4backed Louisville | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794a…19c1backed Louisville | 72c | 109$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Notre Dame | 26c | 87.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab9…3f5fbacked Louisville | 76c | 71.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7a…32a7backed Notre Dame | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Louisville | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Louisville | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…a03bbacked Notre Dame | 29c | 40.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…65ebbacked Notre Dame | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…81e8backed Louisville | 73c | 38.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Louisville | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Louisville | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aee…acd2backed Louisville | 76c | 32.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Louisville | 71c | 30.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c3…c00abacked Louisville | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Louisville | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…220ebacked Notre Dame | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Louisville | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.