TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross less than $16m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$216,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$234,521

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes55c21,130$11,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,446.575536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No47c9,241$4,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,371.633447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes44c5,645$2,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.1118719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No15c5,393$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.856222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes34c5,369$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,524.611625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes71c5,367$3,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.9232739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes51c4,674$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.618431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No29c4,036$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.251799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes52c3,148$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.523941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes57c3,046$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.8313119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccab…cb62backed Yes55c2,933$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.861625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No2c2,505$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.018422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes71c1,962$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.4920049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes53c1,948$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.5432639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked Yes49c1,424$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.163928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bfc…93f7backed Yes58c1,203$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes63c1,201$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.149441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes61c1,176$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.8710037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes76c1,162$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.83046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6125…089cbacked No62c1,049$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.0560%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed No46c1,028$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.413414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes70c918$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.876918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe664…bfb3backed Yes60c895.63$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.032846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes73c831.28$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.632462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes57c821$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.7629642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes26c820.72$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.984934.7%17 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No30c814.48$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x79f0…b735backed Yes78c772.46$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes52c731.64$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.587022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed Yes67c708.61$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.66650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes28c691.62$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.781346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes51c677.1$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.7519836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes77c628.3$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.682227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x290c…bd36backed Yes63c576.17$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.461533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes79c568.85$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.465026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes73c526.49$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.571030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes67c515.23$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.944411.4%5 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked No33c509.89$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.46296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes65c498.08$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.364553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes67c470.71$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.554337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes56c463.54$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.86875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes79c455$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.551353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes73c393.87$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.37520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed No43c377.39$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.376230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No30c358.62$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2516350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes59c310$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.514425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1577…8949backed Yes45c306.85$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+119.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes56c289.46$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3116040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes59c281.25$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9414530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes59c273.71$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.216833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf397…6176backed No46c266.92$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…810abacked No50c258.88$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.421822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes52c238.04$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.111030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes59c231.89$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes75c229.41$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No29c227.34$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.478023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb32e…a793backed Yes56c202.34$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes62c200$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5117041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes53c186.79$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.792040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes53c152.08$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.489932.3%32 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No36c148.69$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.553420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes57c140$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da6…388fbacked No26c133.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa93c…17b2backed Yes79c131.65$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.653745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked No10c129.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.39234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes43c125.78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.227126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed Yes47c120$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.63847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed No50c119.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.731030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb582…c3b6backed No29c104.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.151662.5%10 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.31per pick31cpaid+100.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe296…6b8cbacked No43c96.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c42…41efbacked No47c92.49$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes64c92.04$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.493551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x113c…e838backed No44c90.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…1e86backed Yes57c87.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No27c85.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.641330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x145b…710fbacked Yes53c79.62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf921…5293backed No33c78.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b15…29c8backed No26c78.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No47c76.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa83c…e85ebacked Yes60c75.17$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb878…7e11backed Yes62c72.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b79…d78ebacked Yes73c71.23$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes80c69.96$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.993161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc7…d1d7backed No26c67.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bf…10a4backed Yes56c66.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7420…c03bbacked No47c62.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb129…d410backed No44c62.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257b…c246backed Yes56c62.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a71…eb61backed No45c58.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf78f…f37fbacked No50c56.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…a19cbacked Yes77c55.84$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b54…30f4backed Yes47c54.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e9f…5ee2backed Yes37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.05425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152e…3e5ebacked Yes59c53.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8a…e6d4backed Yes56c52.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.