Movies · resolved market
Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $16-19m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c495b5c6da108789889a4c708a3fd26d9b7a884ec5411bd7a450cce44f2127c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 2c | 16,737$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.1 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 1c | 12,943$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 28c | 11,643$3,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,302.97 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 25c | 11,012$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,727.89 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 18c | 9,260$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.13 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 7,886$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.85 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 28c | 7,154$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.34 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 5,280$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.41 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,116$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 18c | 3,678$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.06 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 18c | 3,372$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.84 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 43c | 3,063$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 39c | 2,766$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.1 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 35c | 2,284$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.99 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 25c | 2,105$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.26 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 4c | 1,993$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,856$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,851$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 27c | 1,707$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.9 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 1c | 1,670$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 32c | 1,583$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.84 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 28c | 1,379$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.81 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda2…d3d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,256$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,232$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.1 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,159$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.83 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 55c | 1,076$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.3 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d53…390dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,074$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 954.46$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.46 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 4c | 772.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…98ccbacked Yes | 2c | 652.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 3c | 606.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 34c | 602.39$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.14 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 8c | 599.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 38c | 525$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 29c | 447.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 26c | 432.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 4c | 384.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 39c | 300.31$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 285.01$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 44c | 273.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes | 41c | 261.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 37c | 235$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 22c | 220$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 17c | 179.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 30c | 173.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 29c | 131.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3b…600abacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb582…c3b6backed Yes | 22c | 113.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 33c | 111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 11c | 110.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 27c | 101.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 26c | 89.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 29c | 84.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…27fbbacked Yes | 46c | 75.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…3772backed No | 59c | 59.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…5ee2backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 58c | 17.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 49cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $16-19m?this page
- Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $19-22m?No won
- Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $22m or more?No won
- Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross less than $16m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.