Movies · resolved market
Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $19-22m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2b9ddc5422ae26e94adf391d8986c0101774ccb28e3ec25c89a6f4ab0f2a948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,769$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 12,922$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.19 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 8c | 9,753$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.13 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 6c | 6,706$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.34 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 5c | 6,264$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.05 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 9c | 6,115$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.35 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 1c | 4,742$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 8c | 4,672$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 2c | 3,317$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,296$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,673$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 1c | 1,517$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 8c | 1,366$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…93f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 6c | 858.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…089cbacked Yes | 19c | 767.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 4c | 583.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 10c | 579.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f2…a7b7backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 489.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 270$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 20c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 8c | 175.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $19-22m?this page
- Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $16-19m?No won
- Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $22m or more?No won
- Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross less than $16m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.