Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump replace Hegseth with DeSantis by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe385951f2b96d2ac30c9259c2207af3692fdbcf650f927b3fa30c68262aa9b2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 8c | 9,101$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.49 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 3,966$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 6c | 3,558$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 12c | 3,467$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.42 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 6c | 1,871$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 14c | 1,522$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.69 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…c6d1backed Yes | 14c | 1,381$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,219$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 17c | 1,079$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.25 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 28c | 1,006$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.78 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…42f0backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 12c | 849.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 75c | 728.88$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.27 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 8c | 700$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 7c | 691.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…9ff1backed Yes | 17c | 675.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 80c | 510.07$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 30c | 507.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 493.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 442.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…e061backed Yes | 12c | 399.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 10c | 300.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes | 15c | 269.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 34c | 262.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d79bbacked Yes | 49c | 208.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 9c | 207.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed No | 51c | 170.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 75c | 166.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 15c | 155$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 29c | 153.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…96b6backed No | 70c | 146.13$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 10c | 140.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed No | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4052backed Yes | 15c | 115.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 12c | 106$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…e28abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…16e4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b7…010abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 90.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 72c | 79.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…a134backed Yes | 29c | 65.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a5…0aabbacked No | 75c | 61.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab9…3f5fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 25c | 46.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c4…ea3fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…f7d4backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec0…aaa5backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…ab2abacked No | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked No | 80c | 20.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…c4ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.