TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pass a border/immigration law in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42a6…1b64backed No56c6,314$3,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,538.611940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed Yes54c5,616$3,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.769746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes42c3,495$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,028.932536%9 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No34c3,294$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.96442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No46c3,210$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.1169634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes34c2,498$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.6811848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes46c2,470$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.393441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No46c2,337$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.542825%7 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No66c2,249$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.935135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No9c2,095$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.871007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes50c1,917$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.286346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes39c1,742$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.781533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes58c1,573$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.7237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked Yes64c1,480$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.253125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes65c1,219$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.314650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes49c1,055$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.766246.8%29 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No48c987.76$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.566251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes54c898.99$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.9699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes63c794.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6916725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked No22c743.78$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.593953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb799…c753backed No50c635.33$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.97911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes30c573.98$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.688739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes61c487.21$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1924434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae43…8194backed Yes67c427$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.913729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No27c371.71$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.985451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed No32c310.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.514562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x018d…7f0abacked Yes52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-70.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6435…f42dbacked Yes45c279.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.59944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfffd…3c2bbacked Yes75c266.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0b…9076backed Yes66c266.45$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1355756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a7…85c0backed Yes38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1551546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6f…bdcfbacked No39c245.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.81118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-74.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0166…af99backed No11c217.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No38c216$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14623149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No34c190$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.537740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c96…f26abacked No41c169.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.05955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No55c155.09$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.887475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe590…e597backed Yes56c154.41$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.121457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked Yes45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.51250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5c…096abacked Yes64c140.63$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.63366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No48c136.68$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6412736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c131.7$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0656733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed No60c129.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.55673.2%41 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed No45c103.77$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.761947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3119436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed No24c99.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248529.4%25 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked No40c89.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.998847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1224…e696backed Yes77c84.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa198…106abacked Yes53c81.79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.681770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed Yes54c79.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.694257.1%24 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd42…99a4backed Yes64c78.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.59988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick70cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf660…a2d7backed No29c75.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.84520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-68.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x138e…42b4backed Yes55c65.01$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.484770.2%33 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No34c63.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.713860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes65c63.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.255343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed No19c59.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.532532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No41c59.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.487830.8%24 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe164…e1b9backed Yes68c58.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.55431.5%17 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb83b…ebf8backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab9…3f5fbacked Yes68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3772…e3f7backed Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No47c49.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.368741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed No22c47.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.557014.3%10 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9c…1bd6backed Yes63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.621838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No36c46.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4732626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed No49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff63…a2f8backed Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.43073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked Yes73c38.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.394386%37 W · 6 L+8.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+29.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8d69…d6f1backed Yes68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.761855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff97…5625backed No59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57b…1457backed Yes54c31.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f18…e10cbacked No47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefda…7da5backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…445fbacked No65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa844…a551backed Yes66c30.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.182147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abf…40b0backed Yes76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e88…dd85backed No47c25.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7813…eeccbacked Yes41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.751266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Yes64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.448757.5%50 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d34…b9fdbacked Yes64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No57c22.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.715944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9936…25efbacked Yes54c22.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed No58c21.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.574052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.43745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5644…56f3backed Yes53c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.93922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-64%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes59c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.793053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5404…39cfbacked Yes72c15.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.28771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.