TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$458,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$466,786

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $458,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25d8…a71fbacked No0c40,000$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c22,982$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.432847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked No0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20380%0 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6151…2e90backed No59c8,190$4,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,791.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b33…0bbbbacked Yes42c8,190$3,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,791.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No11c7,200$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.784938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3944…b898backed Yes42c6,370$2,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,726.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a0…94e4backed No59c6,370$3,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,726.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe804…f706backed No59c6,370$3,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,726.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50b…c935backed Yes42c6,370$2,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,726.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b8…6ab9backed Yes42c5,950$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,480.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…a891backed No59c5,950$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ca8…10dbbacked No59c5,950$3,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,480.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b1b…6d43backed Yes41c5,950$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,498.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…c923backed No53c5,516$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4486…cae0backed Yes47c5,516$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,938.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf508…1fe2backed No53c5,508$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df1…feb1backed Yes47c5,508$2,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,935.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd932…0e47backed Yes42c5,460$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,194.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1e…7a8cbacked No59c5,460$3,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,194.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ea…f801backed No1c5,300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0427…fa68backed Yes45c5,280$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,930.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f1…0f70backed No56c5,280$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd960…2bf7backed Yes44c5,240$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…5207backed No56c5,240$2,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,929.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2201…4d72backed Yes42c4,600$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6911100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x969d…e39dbacked No59c4,600$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,69110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfc…0f18backed No59c4,600$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,69110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…81ebbacked Yes42c4,600$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6911100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ac…182ebacked No59c4,550$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc231…ff06backed Yes42c4,550$1,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c6…2accbacked Yes42c4,550$1,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2800…9322backed Yes47c4,550$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1bd…9d26backed No53c4,550$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d34…d498backed Yes47c4,550$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6d…7ca2backed No53c4,550$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd25…793dbacked Yes47c4,550$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc689…f21fbacked No53c4,550$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…1f15backed No59c4,550$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83da…2f08backed Yes42c4,550$1,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7d…fadfbacked No59c4,550$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…69d7backed Yes47c3,598$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76b…0956backed No53c3,598$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed No5c3,296$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.873321.2%7 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ee…b078backed No1c3,254$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d6a…0566backed Yes47c2,730$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc76…432abacked No53c2,730$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb714…a191backed No4c2,708$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No1c2,495$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6511940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2a9…0b5abacked Yes44c2,263$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.51580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No6c2,133$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.053859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes19c2,030$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.455135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ebc…ad77backed No39c1,871$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.21714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes30c1,380$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.6322347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4869…ecbfbacked Yes27c1,129$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.87450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c1,075$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked No64c999.97$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.981040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c98…eef4backed No11c954.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e7e…d35cbacked Yes45c888$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bfb…fb18backed No55c888$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024a…6819backed No67c876.91$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.8930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes79c874.5$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.0910056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c0…6b87backed No4c866$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+106%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0902…7752backed No12c855.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x197a…4932backed Yes23c817.03$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.491030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked No55c801.82$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.292638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No11c792.61$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes52c779.64$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.397227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked No10c684.09$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.473151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd318…637bbacked No16c667.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ac…2287backed No12c617.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes49c614.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.541464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1885…eb78backed No78c598.11$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x966a…4d34backed No21c582.9$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252528%7 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ba…cc7ebacked No80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick74cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x786a…74d1backed No60c497.12$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dbb…470ebacked Yes40c497.12$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed Yes31c476.15$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.129944.4%44 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc689…d68dbacked Yes39c443.6$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+154.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcabf…c2d7backed Yes45c439.04$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No3c431.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.783438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d99…57dbbacked No73c403.65$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e0…0e3bbacked No9c400.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-62.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3d…851fbacked No26c379.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x158e…c6ecbacked Yes68c365.02$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.023100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b69…cd33backed No4c358.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No30c348.76$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4533627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cd…8c07backed No30c325.65$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.322222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No41c317.03$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.494736.2%17 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01fb…36c8backed No64c309.78$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes22c298.8$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.386530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56d7…ddafbacked Yes39c284.19$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Yes36c274.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.881241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes34c269.33$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.881244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes50c267.09$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.662119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed No8c264.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.154630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef9…2791backed Yes38c264.4$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+161.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No45c223.66$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8736527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0074…6019backed Yes45c220.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed No58c217.29$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.91145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.