Weather · resolved market
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63737d490e6f52083d2de3e617094c2efbdd9a0deb1ba05e38772fd2c6cb76cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $260,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 2c | 19,695$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…61cebacked Yes | 15c | 10,123$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,598.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +232%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 50c | 9,964$4,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,958.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 71c | 8,180$5,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,784.5 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 54c | 7,000$3,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 80c | 6,972$5,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.62 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 31c | 5,642$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 45c | 5,626$2,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 32c | 4,881$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.41 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 61c | 3,863$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 44c | 3,703$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 45c | 3,616$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…2e2ebacked No | 37c | 3,357$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,195$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.82 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 61c | 3,150$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 58c | 2,800$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 59c | 2,711$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 68c | 2,650$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes | 69c | 2,578$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 33c | 2,563$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 57c | 2,514$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.74 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c13…b4d0backed No | 71c | 2,434$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 3c | 2,272$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 3c | 2,272$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 27c | 2,200$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.99 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 60c | 2,099$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 60c | 2,088$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.86 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 57c | 2,067$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 52c | 1,985$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked No | 51c | 1,692$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 64c | 1,619$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 1,588$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 44c | 1,509$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 49c | 1,287$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.22 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…b4a3backed No | 41c | 1,261$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 68c | 1,118$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 55c | 1,100$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 58c | 1,099$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 51c | 1,094$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…27ebbacked Yes | 57c | 1,075$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 52c | 1,060$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…4816backed Yes | 19c | 1,021$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +276.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…dce6backed No | 36c | 999.98$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 51c | 977.35$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.35 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…ba15backed Yes | 38c | 976.29$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 55c | 946.02$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed No | 70c | 922.2$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 52c | 840.75$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 823.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes | 59c | 805$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0d25backed Yes | 62c | 797.16$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 19c | 752.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 53c | 739.85$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 49c | 700$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…8099backed Yes | 46c | 700$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…35d9backed No | 55c | 694.07$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 30c | 649.98$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 65c | 641.68$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 61c | 634$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 40c | 600$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked Yes | 7c | 566.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 4cpaid | +1,139.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 21c | 535.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +370.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…c356backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 47c | 487.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…1b61backed Yes | 49c | 460$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…639fbacked Yes | 10c | 455$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +400%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed No | 75c | 449.67$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 72c | 417.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…4943backed No | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 393.97$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 12c | 381.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 60c | 378.97$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 24c | 370$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 53c | 357$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 352.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.69 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d1…4af3backed Yes | 61c | 344.73$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 38c | 344.32$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 321.12$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…f57abacked Yes | 50c | 313.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…9388backed No | 63c | 309.84$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 35c | 283.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed Yes | 31c | 276.16$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Yes | 57c | 273.78$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 47c | 270.81$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +1,291.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 40c | 266.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 25c | 266.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…d5e8backed No | 50c | 255$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 62c | 252$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 48c | 240.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed Yes | 44c | 229.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked No | 33c | 228$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 50c | 199.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 35c | 198.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d96…78afbacked Yes | 24c | 188.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +323.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…352fbacked No | 71c | 186.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed Yes | 66c | 173$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.