TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$493,819
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$368,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,819 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa3a…2e05backed Yes4c40,899$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb66…a175backed Yes8c28,577$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes5c24,355$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.0123921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda47…95dcbacked Yes6c23,100$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1956…1ef8backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c14,762$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76460%0 W · 46 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes0c10,283$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6914947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes25c8,665$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.278047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes4c7,966$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.94425%11 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes5c5,913$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.781358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca4…af66backed Yes6c4,872$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05df…882dbacked Yes7c3,656$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad3…cda6backed Yes3c3,370$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes5c3,300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.811266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes69c3,289$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.421145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes6c3,288$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2925337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c8…42b7backed Yes2c3,209$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c3,150$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.586883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c3,110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.541664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No77c3,024$2,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.541741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes10c2,907$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.611050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea02…23d1backed Yes3c2,535$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.971631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+274.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes24c2,386$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.438129.6%24 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes6c2,360$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.495817.2%10 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked Yes58c2,294$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.163661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d43…bec0backed Yes72c2,042$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.46911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick45cpaid-73.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes10c2,027$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.34766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes9c1,665$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.913540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a7c…b695backed Yes6c1,625$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0211…d013backed Yes6c1,300$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes11c1,271$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.296836.8%25 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes9c1,234$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.04450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+567.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84c4…feaebacked Yes4c1,004$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes10c1,001$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb76d…9e18backed Yes4c1,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc378…e4a8backed Yes9c943.41$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+409.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8651…8a35backed Yes21c694.64$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe51a…2665backed Yes4c690.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes1c672.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed No80c651$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid+12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06a0…cae1backed Yes12c622$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be4…009abacked Yes4c618$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+136.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb314…31bbbacked Yes16c605$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d79…33e4backed No70c583.19$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.39450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes3c568.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1624736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…66b9backed Yes8c544.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes2c508.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.182846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+68.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254951%25 W · 24 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes67c500$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.53537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes7c499.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.52653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+105.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae82…f963backed Yes15c481$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed No79c458.08$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.883951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Yes4c448.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed No80c438.66$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.662958.6%17 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed Yes10c433$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.73580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+122.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfbc…0680backed Yes12c422$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e77…e626backed Yes39c410.07$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.311136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf8…ded2backed No74c391$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.521040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc5…b648backed Yes26c389$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88fe…074cbacked Yes5c377.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dde…2dccbacked Yes11c376$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes3c356.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.57559.1%5 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…8397backed Yes4c353$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdf…0ec1backed Yes4c338.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+2,410.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed No74c337$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd7…32d9backed Yes11c336$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes20c335$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed Yes26c333$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+145%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed Yes26c332$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4b…1fb3backed No74c328$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.97683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick41cpaid+140.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99ab…edc1backed Yes20c316$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x534c…dbb4backed Yes12c308$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c24…ae45backed Yes7c296.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2270%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf19…4c66backed Yes15c294$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d0…140ebacked Yes15c294$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes67c290$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb55…347ebacked Yes7c287.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6cc…43e7backed Yes15c278.67$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd4…82ffbacked Yes12c278$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1813…6116backed Yes12c278$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.08540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba3…c707backed Yes16c276$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f17…a918backed Yes15c270.67$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Yes10c270$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.732842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc2…40d7backed No79c266$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7485…b217backed Yes21c266$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb950…de2cbacked Yes28c263$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes9c261.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4528430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e7…e194backed Yes13c260.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7768…d558backed Yes8c254.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a60…b5d3backed Yes16c249.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed No34c237$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.6837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+95.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee6…adebbacked Yes17c228$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7826…45a2backed Yes17c228$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.62450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No45c224$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.75955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a6f…42cbbacked Yes15c224$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked Yes9c221.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c220.73$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7915356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0af…8eb6backed Yes6c220.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…cd57backed Yes7c212.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.