World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 65% and 70%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de3a60b294307931108e7aad59660e65e91c1ec57f2388278fd05a37f2bb333
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead7…c6e0backed Yes | 0c | 12,667$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5365…6e3ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,569$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 9,960$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed Yes | 0c | 7,855$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 3c | 7,699$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 4c | 3,455$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9be…d2b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,841$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…8cd3backed Yes | 17c | 1,151$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 766.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 5c | 685.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 23c | 600$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.22 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…65acbacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 10c | 471.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 14c | 422.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 20c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 103.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 22c | 90.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 77c | 37.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 65% and 70%?this page
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be at least 75%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 70% and 75%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.