World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 70% and 75%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x606d6653368d310abb12aaee11bd9b5eccbfe952f3b2de35fce3f77c9dd550c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $502,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1401…2d69backed Yes | 0c | 22,389$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…6e54backed Yes | 0c | 21,890$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0236…7b29backed Yes | 0c | 21,701$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…9495backed Yes | 0c | 21,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…dafebacked Yes | 0c | 21,130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…5932backed Yes | 0c | 20,960$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb5…88debacked Yes | 0c | 20,790$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…0059backed Yes | 0c | 17,283$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fc…eebdbacked Yes | 0c | 16,850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…d3a2backed Yes | 0c | 16,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcc…c02dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,430$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…36d5backed Yes | 0c | 16,340$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…9b37backed Yes | 0c | 16,320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca64…9d06backed Yes | 0c | 16,070$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…dd46backed Yes | 0c | 15,870$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…8ac2backed Yes | 0c | 15,850$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…4292backed Yes | 0c | 15,650$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf467…a993backed Yes | 0c | 15,520$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e4…48b0backed Yes | 0c | 15,420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…efebbacked Yes | 0c | 15,370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…db9fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,410$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1845…359bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,720$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ad…fb6dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,108$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd2…d2dfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,980$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…1a2ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,126$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,802$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…8cd3backed Yes | 11c | 1,742$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…d498backed Yes | 1c | 991.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 721.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 5c | 380$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 8c | 184.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 9c | 174$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 70% and 75%?this page
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be at least 75%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 65% and 70%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.