Music · resolved market
Will Beyonce be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73ee1b44e17e27baeff30e9092fab3ac7bf3e2341715faf1abcfaa1406fdaa75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $303,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 52c | 19,402$10,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,183.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…0f48backed Yes | 21c | 18,782$3,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,885.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +141%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 22c | 18,032$3,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,146.38 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 58c | 16,587$9,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,944.1 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 0c | 14,443$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 12,813$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 68 | 0%0 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 15c | 11,000$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 71c | 8,597$6,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba2…95cebacked No | 2c | 6,500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 6,329$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 1c | 5,677$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 1c | 4,051$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 22c | 2,919$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 2,630$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.01 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 46c | 2,500$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 21c | 1,738$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.56 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 79c | 1,626$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,402$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 39c | 1,102$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +244.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…0596backed Yes | 11c | 699.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +835.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 79c | 680.68$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…4ff0backed No | 78c | 644.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 20c | 586.49$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +217%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 18c | 570.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 41cpaid | +242.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 21c | 555.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 54c | 536.57$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.06 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 19c | 521.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.05 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 504.49$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…4afdbacked Yes | 22c | 461.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +361%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ef…f0f7backed Yes | 22c | 460.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +360.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 68c | 411.45$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.37 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0d…4fcdbacked No | 80c | 356.6$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked Yes | 66c | 314$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…f1cfbacked No | 12c | 313.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 78c | 268.96$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe55d…802cbacked Yes | 20c | 268.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3c…dfb5backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 17c | 254.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +500.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 21c | 245.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +367.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac7…8deebacked Yes | 24c | 232.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +323.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed No | 79c | 208.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…9b8abacked No | 42c | 185.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab9…3f5fbacked Yes | 21c | 180$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 69c | 133.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1a4backed Yes | 19c | 128.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +427.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 59c | 113$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 77c | 111$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 79c | 111$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff4…0f6bbacked Yes | 16c | 107.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 72c | 105.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…3232backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…0669backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b4…8b72backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…7f88backed Yes | 24c | 98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 52c | 93.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…0423backed Yes | 19c | 83.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac14…8333backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…6816backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 78c | 60.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505c…ce17backed Yes | 69c | 58.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6f…7cdabacked Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +318.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d7…8adcbacked Yes | 24c | 53.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…928fbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2ce4backed Yes | 72c | 44.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 80c | 28.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b6…23c7backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beyonce be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?this page
- Will Coldplay be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?No won
- Will Drake be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?No won
- Will Mariah Carey be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?No won
- Will Rihanna be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?No won
- Will Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?No won
- Will another artist be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.