Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a9d3935bcf6c301f2ff42cb35a076602859ca82cb320140deddb4df7178c00b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 2c | 732.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…c648backed Yes | 10c | 690$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…25debacked Yes | 10c | 315$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 30c | 297.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 12c | 277.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 243.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 8c | 221.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 9c | 199.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad73…a0ffbacked No | 61c | 110.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…95f3backed Yes | 56c | 106.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 74c | 103.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 78c | 85.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…77dfbacked No | 66c | 75.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…dcc7backed No | 68c | 73.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 24c | 64.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 58.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab9…3f5fbacked No | 74c | 55.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…fff3backed No | 74c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +313%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…95a3backed Yes | 60c | 50.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 79c | 49.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…67a2backed No | 70c | 45.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 28c | 40.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…3b90backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…f981backed No | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 69c | 28.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 79c | 27.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked No | 72c | 25.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…3e42backed No | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.