Tennis · resolved market
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x418764f197d721fecaa34bffb2c40974779b5e68b90641ec69d0424fe3bb55f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Yes | 1c | 3,012$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…f427backed Yes | 17c | 320.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 19c | 287.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…4b28backed Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 80c | 186.71$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 282 | 41.8%118 W · 164 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…5706backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…a9bebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Yes | 16c | 74.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 16c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…da86backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?this page
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Jack Draper win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?Yes won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.