Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c4a79301f0b3b0a8709e43dbd6dd2dead8c4d44265198177eaa6ceeff74309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 0c | 17,596$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 43c | 861.87$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.78 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 35c | 549.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked No | 67c | 481.5$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.14 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 65c | 385.93$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.03 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…846cbacked Yes | 51c | 381.18$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed No | 58c | 347.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.08 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 54c | 327.23$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.67 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 306.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 64c | 289.74$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 62c | 274.45$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 268.28$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893a…051abacked Yes | 42c | 257.97$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 255.42$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 236$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 65c | 199.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 198.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 198.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…b88fbacked Yes | 31c | 172.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 160.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 35c | 150.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 142.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 36c | 142$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 139.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 138.21$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 34c | 124.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 34c | 117$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 31c | 113.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 41c | 104$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 102.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 35c | 96.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 47c | 93.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 71c | 93.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 64c | 91.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 89.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 40c | 88.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 37c | 80.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 65c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 65c | 75.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 73.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 35c | 72.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 72.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 71.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 35c | 66.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 32c | 66.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 30c | 64.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 63.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 35c | 61.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 65c | 60.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 60.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 35c | 57.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 54.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…0c75backed Yes | 35c | 53.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed No | 57c | 53.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 52.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 31c | 51.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 35c | 50.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 50.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…5316backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 63c | 47.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 66c | 47.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 40c | 46.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 66c | 45.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 42.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 42c | 40.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 40.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 36c | 39.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 65c | 39.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 45c | 38.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 38.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 66c | 37.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 34.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 32.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 36c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 37c | 30.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 28.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 70c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 64c | 26.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 25.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.