TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe082…1b35backed Yes0c17,596$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.213240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed Yes43c861.87$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.7822450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes35c549.99$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1953225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked No67c481.5$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.143046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No65c385.93$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.0386420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfe…846cbacked Yes51c381.18$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xded8…ae40backed No58c347.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.083333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No54c327.23$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.6789544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No65c306.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4481165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No64c289.74$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.818955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No62c274.45$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3139966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No63c268.28$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.182,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x893a…051abacked Yes42c257.97$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No66c255.42$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.572,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c236$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.892,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No65c199.75$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.91,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c198.53$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c198.02$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.673,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…b88fbacked Yes31c172.06$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4170%0 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No62c160.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.421,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes35c150.15$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4731442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No65c142.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.463,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes36c142$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes24c139.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.952,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c138.21$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes34c124.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.725239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes34c117$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.784940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes31c113.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9323743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c110$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes41c104$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.610845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes36c102.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1863538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3412638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x031d…87d1backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.844330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+11.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes32c99.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.515648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes35c96.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.921,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No47c93.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7858422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No71c93.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1817355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b37…2e48backed No64c91.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.177170.4%50 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes28c89.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed Yes40c88.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.35933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes30c83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.861929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes37c80.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed No65c78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No65c75.88$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6142976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes32c73.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1844536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x884c…2ee9backed Yes35c72.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c72.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes46c71.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5745238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes35c66.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3814941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes32c66.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.41,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes30c64.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c63.42$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.452,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes35c61.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610633%35 W · 71 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb69b…368ebacked No65c60.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1227560%165 W · 110 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No67c60.23$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.021,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes35c57.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No74c57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5839157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c54.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.139,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c09…0c75backed Yes35c53.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed No57c53.46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8641046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes36c52.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9162137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes31c51.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.092142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes35c50.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6917033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes37c50.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2620631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e69…5316backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes35c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No63c47.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6124768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No66c47.11$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1863656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes40c46.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.83636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x823a…61abbacked No66c45.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.377869.2%54 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes42c42.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7937835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes42c40.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes35c40.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.840025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes36c39.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.289445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No65c39.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5918530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes45c38.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3934250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c38.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.072,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f6…85e9backed No66c37.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.718067.5%54 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes32c34.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.055,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No65c33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.551,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes43c32.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1156131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes36c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4919037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes37c30.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2521052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f5f…fa45backed No71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes35c28.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc40b…dc70backed No70c28.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.715246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No64c26.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6443859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c25.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb8e…d3b4backed No65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.752975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No64c22.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes52c21.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes61c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.819750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.