TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,441

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,543 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes48c933.04$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.0430919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes59c753.94$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.3589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No47c436.07$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2422450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes49c380.77$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.251,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c318.22$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No56c298.93$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.188955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes56c275.5$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.524940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No47c255.42$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.812,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No5c255.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No47c247.62$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.032,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No51c242.2$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.135164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes50c199.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2910141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No45c194.07$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.452,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xded8…ae40backed Yes56c178.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.493333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No46c163.67$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0258422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No51c160.62$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.171,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No45c156.17$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.74,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes49c142.91$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2763143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes51c142.08$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8131442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes55c139.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.240025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes76c138.54$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8513160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes69c137.57$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.621838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes73c125.2$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9386420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c124.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e8…722dbacked No68c110.61$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3b…22aebacked No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes55c99.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9320631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes50c99.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5463538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No54c98.92$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3334151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes51c98.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1725239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes54c92.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9752935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c85.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.739,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes60c80.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2983…cedfbacked Yes74c78$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.221338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b37…2e48backed Yes57c77.59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.387170.4%50 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes58c75.92$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9823743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No42c74.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.343,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb70a…0883backed No68c72.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.057866.7%52 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No24c71.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2141258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No61c70$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4381848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0745…5673backed Yes36c68.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.54728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No43c68.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.181,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No72c67.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9486173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No40c65.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.271,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes63c64.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9545148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No52c63.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0116548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe559…eaaebacked Yes48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes32c59.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.793256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes57c59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.189445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes65c58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.310845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c56.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.571,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c09…0c75backed Yes33c56.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes53c56.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.552,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e6…8fcabacked No42c55.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+48.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes53c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.817358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes44c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.816234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes31c54.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5793837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb69b…368ebacked No73c53.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.327560%165 W · 110 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cd3…5b9abacked No34c52.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182030%6 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes31c49.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3160739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes62c49.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6454857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No72c48.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes44c45.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5911129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes55c45.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8515047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes31c45.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4656131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes44c44.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.991154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick27cpaid+256.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x823a…61abbacked No71c43.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.967869.2%54 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d4…6297backed No52c42.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.31060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No48c41.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1366944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes30c41.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.337835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c41.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76bc…383cbacked Yes37c40.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.29450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+89.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No54c39.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.163,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No51c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.381,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes35c36.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3219734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes34c35.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4455538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes34c35.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1512539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df1…3661backed Yes34c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.154748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b10…2f9ebacked Yes58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0675…1ec0backed No55c33.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.431656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes53c33.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc8a4…fc0bbacked No46c32.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed No68c31.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3124770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes61c31.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0835133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4591…7d89backed No53c30.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.453265.6%21 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0820…4b09backed No66c30.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No51c29.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes55c25.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.494367.4%29 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad43…1427backed Yes54c25.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.654465.9%29 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2519037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5139157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No66c24.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4972837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No55c22.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.462,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c21.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c21.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.882,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.