Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc6a1c770c30d6bed1f787eb2786b120fa67166c723c5f6c3a0a72cf8a893eb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 48c | 933.04$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.04 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 59c | 753.94$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.35 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 47c | 436.07$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 49c | 380.77$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.25 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 318.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 56c | 298.93$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 56c | 275.5$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 255.42$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 5c | 255.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 247.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 51c | 242.2$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 50c | 199.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 194.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 56c | 178.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 46c | 163.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 160.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 156.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 49c | 142.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 51c | 142.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 55c | 139.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 76c | 138.54$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes | 69c | 137.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 73c | 125.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 124.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e8…722dbacked No | 68c | 110.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 55c | 99.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 50c | 99.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 54c | 98.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 51c | 98.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 54c | 92.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 85.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 60c | 80.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…cedfbacked Yes | 74c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 57c | 77.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 58c | 75.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 74.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 68c | 72.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 24c | 71.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…5673backed Yes | 36c | 68.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 43c | 68.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 67.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 40c | 65.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 63c | 64.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 52c | 63.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 57c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 56.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…0c75backed Yes | 33c | 56.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 56.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked No | 42c | 55.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 31c | 54.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 73c | 53.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked No | 34c | 52.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 49.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 62c | 49.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 44c | 45.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 55c | 45.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 45.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +256.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 71c | 43.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6297backed No | 52c | 42.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 48c | 41.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 41.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 41.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…383cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 39.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 36.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 35.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 34c | 35.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…2f9ebacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0675…1ec0backed No | 55c | 33.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 33.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…fc0bbacked No | 46c | 32.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 68c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 61c | 31.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 53c | 30.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…4b09backed No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 51c | 29.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 55c | 25.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 54c | 25.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 66c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 55c | 22.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 21.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 21.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.