TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes21c1,365$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.972147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb989…9f16backed Yes2c1,026$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.86825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab0…95fbbacked Yes1c1,010$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes43c458.02$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.054,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c407.67$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.5412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No63c316.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2981165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes23c288.74$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.055,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c285.94$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.572,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c274.81$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.188,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c266.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.291,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes57c229.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3254043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No68c220.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c207.98$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes64c188$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.911030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes40c179.88$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.251,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No43c175.65$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No63c175.24$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7297570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e57…ddc3backed Yes66c151.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No54c149.74$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.492,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes37c148.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.29,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes42c138.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.372,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No12c135.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1772222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.892,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No70c121.37$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes38c113.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2118837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c106.02$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.137,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa5d1…873ebacked No18c101.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.88944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4312638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1717…1f7cbacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506536.9%24 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked No33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9924442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No11c94.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.221,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No35c91.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.891,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35af…8e95backed No59c81.96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.537762.3%48 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…7104backed Yes62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.63828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No63c79.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.653437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No35c74$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.14,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No60c70.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes28c70.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.731,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes37c70.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.964362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes35c67.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6252533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes45c67.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2917138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe368…3b47backed Yes67c67.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No64c67.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3416968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No57c65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.957650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No28c63.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.252,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…f41cbacked Yes48c62.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Yes24c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6414144%62 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes51c59.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3845238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…b4d7backed No55c58.38$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2710360.2%62 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No70c57.89$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1412564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c55.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No76c54.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0927376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No55c54.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5424768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c53.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52fc…c095backed Yes40c53.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.231450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0069…e341backed Yes34c50.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.59932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.518272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0148672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed Yes28c49.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9910141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes31c49.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4935137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No69c49.72$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2862770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No68c47.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.511664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb51…b1b2backed No62c47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.723941%16 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes36c41.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.826344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5308…a8f6backed Yes56c39.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223865.8%25 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No64c38.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0720161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No54c38.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6812962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes32c37.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No67c37.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1217066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No34c36.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3938258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes32c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.242544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes48c33.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1632352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f0b…8202backed Yes39c33.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310441.3%43 W · 61 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c31.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.444,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes39c31.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44235.7%15 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No69c31.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9614671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed Yes64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8439158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes48c30.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7943842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No59c30.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5517376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes56c30.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc255…b95cbacked No35c30.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.565228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No61c30.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5712057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe856…7347backed No67c30.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.952065%13 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick75cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c29.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.393,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked No70c28.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.664766%31 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82c…c866backed Yes62c28.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.577639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcea2…b59abacked Yes43c28.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes65c27.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No58c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.921,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3172…e940backed No76c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.244369.8%30 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6572…3968backed No58c25.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.724571.1%32 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.