Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02fba5779bc17ece51a527a664580ab44fa0da106e9184e9e01c841c5005a1eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes | 21c | 1,365$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.97 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…9f16backed Yes | 2c | 1,026$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…95fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,010$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 458.02$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 407.67$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 316.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 288.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 285.94$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 274.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 266.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 57c | 229.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 220.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 207.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 64c | 188$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 179.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 175.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 175.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e57…ddc3backed Yes | 66c | 151.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 54c | 149.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 148.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 138.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 12c | 135.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 70c | 121.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 38c | 113.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 106.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked No | 18c | 101.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 11c | 94.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 91.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 59c | 81.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 63c | 79.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 35c | 74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 70.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 28c | 70.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 37c | 70.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 35c | 67.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 45c | 67.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 64c | 67.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 63.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…f41cbacked Yes | 48c | 62.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 59.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 55c | 58.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 70c | 57.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 55.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 54.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 53.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed Yes | 40c | 53.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0069…e341backed Yes | 34c | 50.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 28c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 49.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 68c | 47.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 41.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 56c | 39.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 64c | 38.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 54c | 38.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 32c | 37.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 67c | 37.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 34c | 36.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 48c | 33.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 31.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 39c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 69c | 31.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 48c | 30.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 59c | 30.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 30.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 35c | 30.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 61c | 30.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…7347backed No | 67c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 29.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 62c | 28.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea2…b59abacked Yes | 43c | 28.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes | 65c | 27.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 58c | 25.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 102°F or higher on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.