TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,561
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,561 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1fd…dde7backed No0c9,156$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes26c933.33$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c811.4$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.6917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes25c613.57$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.8454043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No79c523$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.241,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d9…6b54backed No2c507.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.16520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes60c439.84$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.285,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No76c374.37$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.0222450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf387…5414backed Yes12c301.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.313729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No55c301.13$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4172222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes24c297.44$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.464,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes23c282$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.142,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes26c272.87$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.4825519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c265.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.731,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes21c257.18$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.32,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes41c226.07$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.641,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…7104backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes13c189.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.193,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes32c173$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.774,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes37c167$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.631030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No71c165.02$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8363143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes28c134.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.761,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No78c129.2$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.119753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes18c96.84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.691,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No54c94.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.321,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No60c82.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.529751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81b2…cf28backed No65c77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.821361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick75cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No75c75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1834970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde57…76a4backed Yes17c74.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.782254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+93.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No76c73.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8716968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes28c72.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5366926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes30c72.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed No76c70.58$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.523743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No72c69.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e9…fba8backed Yes21c69.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.689714.4%14 W · 83 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes36c68.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7950648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes23c65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.081850%9 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+48.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes34c64.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.981,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes34c63$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3649547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…b4d7backed No60c61.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9110360.2%62 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Yes28c61.19$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1715236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac0…ace0backed No69c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.647463.5%47 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes46c57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.064362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No61c56.93$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.461,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.749,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes20c55.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0811729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52fc…c095backed Yes21c53.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.11450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No60c51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4717555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.971,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes23c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.59932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No79c47.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4986173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No77c46.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes23c45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.661,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes28c42.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.682544%11 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c40.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.234,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes33c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4842544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked No75c32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2433561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc255…b95cbacked No35c30.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.545228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8726344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes36c29.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1510633%35 W · 71 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes51c29.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.218164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x84e3…3dfdbacked No72c27.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9914878.4%116 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9762…73e0backed No59c26.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.981136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e9…5c58backed No77c25.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33b7…0589backed No79c25.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.998673.3%63 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.572,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf211…385dbacked No74c24.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.157040%28 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No75c24.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No80c22.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1817376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No67c20.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3172…e940backed No72c20.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44369.8%30 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No79c20.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9842049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc9…fc76backed No77c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.771266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No74c14.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5119764.5%127 W · 70 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c13.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.