Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefcefe9a09b897e8f3c36cfff1aa983e38113c069be72b6fe3d53d44cfb08670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes | 9c | 1,582$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 25c | 533$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 321.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 295.72$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 247.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 234.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 212.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 188.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 185.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 180.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 171.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 158.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 152.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 25c | 151.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 68c | 146.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 17c | 133.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 11c | 119.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 32c | 119.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 110.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 108.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 26c | 103.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 96.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 95.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 17c | 93.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 88.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 24c | 85.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 80.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked No | 72c | 70.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 59.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 70c | 59.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 36c | 57.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 34c | 56.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 44c | 56.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed Yes | 34c | 53.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 38c | 51.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 70c | 49.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 45.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 67c | 37.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 76c | 36.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 41c | 35.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 34.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 34.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 36c | 31.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0e…1d8bbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 29.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 75c | 25.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 58c | 20.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…757fbacked No | 80c | 17.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…fe8cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…ec06backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 102°F or higher on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.