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F1 · resolved market

Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
F1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,911,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$976,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,911,319 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in F1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c248,321$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.66490%0 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c112,543$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.29352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d5…2884backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c77,827$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.77270%0 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b0…d233backed Yes0c68,008$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd95…9a9cbacked Yes0c67,274$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x017e…d29bbacked Yes0c67,253$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd304…8260backed Yes0c66,966$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8394…9f7bbacked Yes0c66,965$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e08…60bbbacked Yes0c66,939$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5156…4e4fbacked Yes0c66,643$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf0…ee3dbacked Yes0c66,336$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb7…b69fbacked Yes0c66,335$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaace…bd18backed Yes0c64,592$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99c…44dbbacked Yes0c61,600$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…3fb8backed Yes0c60,308$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb553…d6afbacked Yes0c60,308$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b9…341cbacked Yes0c60,308$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…0572backed Yes0c59,975$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…226bbacked Yes0c59,679$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd916…ec46backed Yes0c59,678$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeafb…8211backed Yes0c59,678$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa712…927cbacked Yes0c59,346$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf80a…1254backed Yes0c55,287$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e40…0687backed Yes0c54,705$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d5…23a2backed Yes0c54,636$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a47…c661backed Yes0c54,302$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb216…61bfbacked Yes0c53,672$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d30…39f7backed Yes0c53,337$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c37,139$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.72248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-85.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes0c30,368$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.891338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes0c28,864$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes0c26,454$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4520843.3%90 W · 118 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes0c25,097$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.19190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bc…4659backed Yes0c20,369$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e5…2169backed Yes0c20,169$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4db6…ad0dbacked Yes0c20,139$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ca…137abacked Yes0c20,039$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873c…ac48backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2092…a524backed Yes0c19,940$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…389abacked Yes0c19,940$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb462…df3bbacked Yes0c19,940$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5644…5ba6backed Yes0c19,940$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b32…60dcbacked Yes0c19,840$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977f…b2f2backed Yes0c19,840$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4894…d4b0backed Yes0c19,840$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9680…2a38backed Yes0c19,840$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3646…b144backed Yes0c19,810$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa914…f8dbbacked Yes0c19,810$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a8…6b44backed Yes0c19,740$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a0…4024backed Yes0c19,710$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c19,046$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fde…9223backed Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0669…5b4cbacked Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8c…aab7backed Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e9…9618backed Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e58…77dabacked Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd014…faf4backed Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab11…3bf5backed Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef6…49afbacked Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5440…4359backed Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301b…9dfabacked Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc193…1726backed Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713c…fddfbacked Yes0c18,513$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d52…f0a8backed Yes0c18,167$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4716…90b9backed Yes0c18,167$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bfc…0166backed Yes0c18,167$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0afa…1c8abacked Yes0c18,167$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a6…70d0backed Yes0c18,167$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2e…af87backed Yes0c18,167$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36a…22fcbacked Yes0c18,104$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc90b…a028backed Yes0c17,772$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…49c3backed Yes0c17,770$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…3d6ebacked Yes0c17,770$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6d6…b245backed Yes0c17,770$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…5a3abacked Yes0c17,770$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd774…02ddbacked Yes0c17,757$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d6…e23ebacked Yes0c17,757$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a57…ca4ebacked Yes0c17,551$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f7…363abacked Yes0c17,551$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9a…a827backed Yes0c17,549$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebca…adbdbacked Yes0c17,549$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…9cc8backed Yes0c17,549$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc39…c6edbacked Yes0c17,549$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x602d…ac14backed Yes0c17,525$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f12…56f4backed Yes0c17,525$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768b…ac0abacked Yes0c17,525$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba37…27c0backed Yes0c17,352$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc130…11f7backed Yes0c17,331$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x573a…f250backed Yes0c17,317$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3f…190fbacked Yes0c17,312$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0953…ff6abacked Yes0c17,130$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c2…6e59backed Yes0c16,951$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb453…4f43backed Yes0c16,621$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4437…529fbacked Yes0c16,513$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes0c16,460$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x847f…9145backed Yes0c16,420$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f3…a3ecbacked Yes0c16,420$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe28f…fb0ebacked Yes0c16,420$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db4…9063backed Yes0c16,420$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.