F1 · resolved market
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 F1 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc22ac8122208f8bb6bc8ae52e9ab82cffdeb407f76496a0178b123791f4fb4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $887,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $346,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $887,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 0c | 62,205$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 55,323$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 46,372$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 29,346$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14f…2240backed Yes | 0c | 24,932$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 23,286$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…5be7backed Yes | 0c | 17,639$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…ef9ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,401$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…4a6fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,227$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…17a8backed Yes | 0c | 8,505$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…86abbacked Yes | 0c | 7,157$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…1482backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…6c04backed Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…e081backed Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…5900backed Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…7e22backed Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9298…2e6abacked Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e0…ce5bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbe…4a21backed Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008e…2097backed Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…9f4fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…48cfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…16dabacked Yes | 0c | 5,234$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda4…d70bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0244…90a8backed Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a0…d611backed Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2750…c8bbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadac…13b2backed Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fa…9e53backed Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…b6c6backed Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe141…c861backed Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…b76fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc1…37c7backed Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…dcb9backed Yes | 0c | 5,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326b…92d6backed Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bc…9da7backed Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe4…b22cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448f…4a00backed Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddf…785ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…45cabacked Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…0625backed Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fe…0920backed Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…6952backed Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…4471backed Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a5…6133backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…df72backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07b…32dabacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf78b…83bbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e92…ef67backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd16…a16abacked Yes | 0c | 4,841$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab7…e97dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331c…dbf6backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6275…8f23backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…fc03backed Yes | 0c | 3,923$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,929$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8274…c499backed Yes | 1c | 1,001$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 F1 season?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 F1 season?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2024 F1 season?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 F1 season?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 F1 season?No won
- Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.