Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdbb9ddcdc08fa7fc4210b103cbb2d53d5030aefc86891a943c568f588914b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 7,983$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 22c | 666.89$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.86 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 612.59$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 17c | 482.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.76 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 421.82$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…3801backed Yes | 11c | 394.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.29 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 62c | 391.42$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.58 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 11c | 334.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.68 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 271.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 256.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 243.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 40c | 188.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 11c | 176.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 6c | 175.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.09 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 14c | 173.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.74 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 32c | 162.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 154.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 76c | 153.88$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…28eebacked Yes | 12c | 148.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 7c | 147.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.94 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 33c | 144.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked Yes | 11c | 131.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 121.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 120.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 41c | 110.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 37c | 104.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 71c | 102.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 77c | 99.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 98.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 55c | 98.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 94.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 47c | 93.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 27c | 91.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…8f95backed Yes | 30c | 73.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 14c | 73.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 71.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 20c | 66.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 60.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 23c | 59.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 24c | 59.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 71c | 54.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 63c | 51.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 40c | 46.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 45.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…ae25backed No | 67c | 42.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 36c | 42.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 73c | 40.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…16b6backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 62c | 38.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 72c | 34.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 58c | 33.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 39c | 32.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 52c | 27.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…9184backed No | 79c | 26.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 39c | 26.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…4329backed Yes | 62c | 23.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 20.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 61c | 18.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…a285backed No | 63c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…6f63backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.