Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28189fb502324a3fad9762a9b423d882d31b600d00445643783a51c40d2bbaa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 10c | 556.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Yes | 22c | 299.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 31c | 295.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…4aeabacked Yes | 10c | 278.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 77c | 260.94$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 180.59$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 6c | 177.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…0367backed Yes | 23c | 176.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 175.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 174.21$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 18c | 159.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…6f63backed Yes | 15c | 132.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 16c | 131.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 18c | 99.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 26c | 89.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 28c | 83.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 78.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 73.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 19c | 54.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 50.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 50.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 41.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…b4d3backed Yes | 30c | 40.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 37.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked No | 76c | 33.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 76c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 21.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 76c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4348backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 72c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 80c | 17.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.