TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,139 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes43c632.62$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.115,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes27c595.73$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.511,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked No56c515.21$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.242339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c485.08$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.6112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd75…d07ebacked No72c438.48$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.5915433.8%52 W · 102 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x891a…75acbacked Yes26c369.63$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.29944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+70.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed No74c366.46$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.898461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c293.33$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Yes13c245.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.471957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9193…a796backed Yes70c232.79$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.951741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No68c227.61$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.594,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes29c227.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9770133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da5…0865backed Yes39c206.64$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.654858.3%28 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked No42c191.15$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.276240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes43c181.18$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2222945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ad…4aeabacked Yes43c174.77$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.451118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes44c156.95$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2546733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…0367backed Yes22c136.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.441020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf387…5414backed Yes34c128.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.233729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes47c114.55$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.952944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes65c103$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9554043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a20…bf45backed Yes51c101.79$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207728.6%22 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes66c98.65$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.112638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xded8…ae40backed Yes50c96.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.623333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes30c95.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bc…5d37backed Yes16c94.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.741225%3 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No31c93.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.532,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b3…f0bebacked No56c91.68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.548270.7%58 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x01d0…7b12backed No68c86.4$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.483135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No56c85.61$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4712962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No52c83.15$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8199961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00ac…c678backed Yes29c81.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.211241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes43c81.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.958650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes32c79.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5611833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No77c79.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.919,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe6…1bfabacked No73c77.86$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7511741%48 W · 69 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes35c74.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2647738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No70c74$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.237533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes19c74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.788432.1%27 W · 57 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes20c73.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6823549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes49c72.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes37c70.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.711129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes22c67.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No75c64.82$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0511977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No59c62.78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.972,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No68c60.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3931262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No70c59.78$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc969…0377backed Yes23c58.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.38512.9%11 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb99c…177abacked Yes29c57.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.561612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes20c56.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1357backed Yes22c55.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes38c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.959445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x855e…de25backed Yes33c53.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.814643.5%20 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes26c53.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.918814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47a3…7723backed Yes48c52.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No71c51.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8585330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.515435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c49.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c49.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.373,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No75c48.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3617949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c48.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.319,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No58c47.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9972222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e0b…7b92backed Yes43c47.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.211330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No41c47.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes50c47.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7630131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes22c46.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0898236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3024…0737backed Yes44c46.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes68c45.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.853426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc4…4ef0backed No77c44.67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.194946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558e…cdabbacked Yes30c44.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.472638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes25c43.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.591,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No70c42.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No67c40.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes40c40.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0411122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No66c37.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9738961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8c…9de1backed Yes40c36.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes44c36.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0635133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed Yes54c35.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0912547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc409…2267backed Yes32c33.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…75f3backed Yes59c32.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0122171%157 W · 64 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x866d…f673backed No75c32.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.279054.4%49 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecd…3923backed Yes47c32.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-80%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No44c32.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0239951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes63c31.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes43c28.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0820358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No38c28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.232,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No78c27.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed No80c26.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2924841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfec…4dc7backed No78c24.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.262653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.164,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No69c20.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4555538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aff…9945backed Yes58c20.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No75c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7515176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9d72backed No75c18.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.531442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+376.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c18.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.258,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.