Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad7c2abe0a0d9c23be1cc71e3649de03c29e47d78114fe227731c7282244ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 632.62$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 595.73$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.51 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 56c | 515.21$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 485.08$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 72c | 438.48$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked Yes | 26c | 369.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 74c | 366.46$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.89 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 293.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Yes | 13c | 245.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…a796backed Yes | 70c | 232.79$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 227.61$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 227.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 39c | 206.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 42c | 191.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 43c | 181.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…4aeabacked Yes | 43c | 174.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 44c | 156.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…0367backed Yes | 22c | 136.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 34c | 128.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 47c | 114.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 65c | 103$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a20…bf45backed Yes | 51c | 101.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 66c | 98.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 50c | 96.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 95.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…5d37backed Yes | 16c | 94.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 93.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 56c | 91.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed No | 68c | 86.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 56c | 85.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 83.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…c678backed Yes | 29c | 81.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 43c | 81.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 32c | 79.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 79.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 73c | 77.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 35c | 74.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 49c | 72.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 70.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 67.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 75c | 64.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 62.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 68c | 60.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 59.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 23c | 58.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 29c | 57.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 56.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1357backed Yes | 22c | 55.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 33c | 53.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 53.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…7723backed Yes | 48c | 52.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 71c | 51.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 49.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 75c | 48.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 48.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 58c | 47.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…7b92backed Yes | 43c | 47.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 41c | 47.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 50c | 47.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 22c | 46.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0737backed Yes | 44c | 46.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 68c | 45.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed No | 77c | 44.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked Yes | 30c | 44.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 43.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 40.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 40c | 40.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 66c | 37.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…9de1backed Yes | 40c | 36.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 44c | 36.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 54c | 35.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…2267backed Yes | 32c | 33.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 59c | 32.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 75c | 32.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed Yes | 47c | 32.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 63c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 43c | 28.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 27.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 80c | 26.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed No | 78c | 24.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 69c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…9945backed Yes | 58c | 20.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9d72backed No | 75c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.