Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d2210f2d3e93190905494e6c15103618767644fb78733554f494c976817a049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 23c | 1,001$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.7 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 26c | 486.37$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 71c | 411.57$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 74c | 360.24$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 79c | 301.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 25c | 298.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 74c | 261.63$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 4c | 256$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 71c | 221.17$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 7c | 219.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 24c | 189.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 876 | 24.2%212 W · 664 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 66c | 178.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 80c | 172.08$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 38c | 170.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 6c | 170.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 75c | 142.88$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 74c | 142.51$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 72c | 118.84$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 15c | 115.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 75c | 111.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 77c | 111$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 2,213 | 23.7%525 W · 1,688 L | +86.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 19c | 101.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 30c | 100.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 88.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 88.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 77c | 85.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 21c | 84.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 82.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 663 | 27.8%184 W · 479 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 24c | 79.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 77c | 67.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 59c | 63.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 26c | 60.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 58.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 75c | 54.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 50c | 54.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 793 | 63.4%503 W · 290 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 47.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 28c | 47.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 29c | 44.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…9230backed Yes | 75c | 40.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 39.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…d9bebacked Yes | 76c | 39.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…c825backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 38.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 73c | 32.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 162 | 57.4%93 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 32.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 931 | 44.9%418 W · 513 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 74c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 77c | 29.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 69c | 27.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 73c | 27.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 761 | 26.9%205 W · 556 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 72c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…f5debacked Yes | 70c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0080…923cbacked Yes | 77c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 77c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 77c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.