Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb7120b40e1c6ae134c8a1f9bb3376353587e07227eb1cb14494e15f27a1ae36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,810$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 5c | 900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 373.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 192.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 23c | 173.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 30c | 133.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 131.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 118.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 110.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 91.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 82.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 21c | 81.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 21c | 71.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 62.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 60.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 57.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 53.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 24c | 46.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 34.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 33.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 78c | 21.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 77c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.