TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x652d…46b3backed No4c1,291$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0961820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7439…0799backed No6c394.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.161540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1048…e362backed No12c288.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.27153.5%38 W · 33 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+62%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes72c276.87$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8725933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb9…83acbacked No11c276.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.23154.8%17 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+41.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No8c261.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9124736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No12c220.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.574,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No31c211.26$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9660523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c205.43$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x109e…9a31backed No55c199.96$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.983844.7%17 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No16c164.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.843,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No34c150.45$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.033,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No13c135.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.127,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.092,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No9c123.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No67c109.37$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.612,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes74c105.36$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7629520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0dc…15ddbacked No14c101.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0529941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes72c90.7$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8314752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes43c87.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8628142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73b1…3190backed No56c85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.640%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes36c85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.41,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe34d…41f0backed Yes45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4412147.9%58 W · 63 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59ec…3dd8backed No56c77.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick55cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c74.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.639,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d0…1284backed Yes46c68.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.734447.7%21 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No29c67.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3643859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes45c67.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.124029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94a6…0cd5backed Yes44c66$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed No39c63.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.876660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes37c63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4122023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No18c62.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2641258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd682…8d3dbacked Yes61c61.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.98560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes45c56.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0340935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f85…1774backed No60c56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes43c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4529740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No55c54.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9912962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.923,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c53.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.419,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Yes44c52.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.62922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes45c51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2310634.9%37 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc16…10fabacked Yes44c51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8480…8b20backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x529f…ad0dbacked No60c47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes43c46.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.518837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf40e…43c2backed Yes44c45.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+69.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No60c43.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.32,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes42c39.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9713448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No60c39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5647569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4e…426fbacked Yes40c37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No46c36.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7635058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdff…b57fbacked Yes40c36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+111.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes45c36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8619037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No59c35.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7527464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No68c34.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3824768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No62c33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3599571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes47c31.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.783070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c30.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.181,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x240d…5f3cbacked Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes44c29.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6715044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa90d…ce28backed Yes65c29.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.11757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.163,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No58c26.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2542762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b18…bd24backed Yes76c26.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.286564.6%42 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No47c25.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9950261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.551,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e3a…0255backed Yes44c24.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No65c24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5227769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes46c23.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2386362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1153…707fbacked Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.54475%33 W · 11 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+27.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.617570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.95,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…a6dcbacked No58c17.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aff…9945backed Yes74c17.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.66875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1d…8e23backed No60c16.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce05…7852backed Yes79c15.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.333348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbca…cb90backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.