Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0407a85f1986fd9cb78e63775c9f12b024b10a178d6d2af1f6066a15cef7611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 27c | 261.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 155.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed No | 79c | 150.28$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 130.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 31c | 119.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 116.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 75c | 113.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 32c | 101.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…00c1backed Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc2…9762backed Yes | 25c | 99.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 77c | 90.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 76.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 79c | 70.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 68c | 68.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 31c | 63.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 34c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 29c | 62.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 26c | 60.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 55.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 32c | 50.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 32c | 48.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c1…cd78backed Yes | 31c | 47.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 42.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 41.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…9f16backed Yes | 27c | 37.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 28.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 73c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 26.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 74c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.