Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f9508ba80e9cdafbb8ae445ce8260f55e49bedac4b5aedd2616af8516befdee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 60c | 1,110$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.22 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 647.94$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.58 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 391.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 30c | 320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 296.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 290.16$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 285.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 57c | 281.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 48c | 281.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 280.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 24c | 249.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.3 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 239.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 181.86$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 181.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 180$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 67c | 178.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 16c | 178.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 173.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 73c | 170.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 157.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 145.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 143.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 141.38$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 35c | 138.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 38c | 133.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 132.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 130.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 130.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 120.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 26c | 120$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…e684backed Yes | 42c | 118.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 115$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 20c | 109.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 107.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 71c | 106.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…c5dbbacked No | 68c | 102.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…b21cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 67c | 98.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 38c | 93.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…54c7backed Yes | 45c | 89.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 45c | 87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 19c | 77.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 59c | 60.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 56.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 29c | 52.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 52.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 35c | 48.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 34c | 48.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 55c | 48.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 45.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 41.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 41c | 39.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 37.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 47c | 35.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 77c | 35.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 33.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 32c | 31.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 30.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 35c | 29.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 26.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 66c | 26.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 23.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 63c | 23.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 47c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 64c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 22.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 70c | 20.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 72c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 64c | 15.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 15.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…9ac6backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.