Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cda4856a6cf7ead70640953f07cb7d9da05557608f4f5321b3e7fb83b78ac68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 59c | 432.26$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.13 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 292.36$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 288.94$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 41c | 247.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.46 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 53c | 242.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 235.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 210.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 199$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 185$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 6c | 176$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 139.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 39c | 128.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 50c | 117.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 67c | 108.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 107.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…9ab2backed Yes | 28c | 106.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 102.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 100.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 53c | 99.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 66c | 93.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 14c | 92.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 52c | 87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 57c | 86.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 41c | 80.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…24e4backed No | 62c | 80.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 57c | 65.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 62c | 64.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 47c | 64.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 52c | 61.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 59.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 52c | 57.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 49.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 51c | 47.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 47.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 46.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 55c | 46.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 42c | 46.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 49c | 44.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 39c | 43.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 44c | 40.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 39.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 38.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 37.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 36.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 60c | 36.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 41c | 34.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 70c | 33.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 69c | 32.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 50c | 31.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e8…c62ebacked Yes | 50c | 30.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 44c | 29.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 49c | 27.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…7651backed Yes | 79c | 22.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 53c | 22.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 48c | 21.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 70c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 20.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 74c | 19.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 75c | 17.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 73c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.