Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1afe31adca6f9933f6af534e7e92652b0b913d10f12b403a702df8678cdf570b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 627.09$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 5c | 602.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 16c | 575.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 558$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 474.41$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 459.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.1 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 27c | 390.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 366.49$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 41c | 362.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.62 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 354.26$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 50c | 353$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.47 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked No | 4c | 319$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 64c | 312.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 296$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 274$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 75c | 241.16$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 63c | 240.42$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 65c | 238.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 234.87$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 21c | 230.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 28c | 228.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 207$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Yes | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 10c | 186.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 184.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 47c | 159.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 156.03$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes | 74c | 134.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 134.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 127.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 124.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 51c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Yes | 63c | 110.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 109.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 108.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 53c | 103.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 100.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 51c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8850…d68dbacked No | 50c | 98.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 49c | 97.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 50c | 96.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…a2edbacked Yes | 53c | 94.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…0884backed No | 46c | 94.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked Yes | 53c | 93.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 93.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 43c | 92.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 16c | 92.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 40c | 91.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 86.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 49c | 86.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 29c | 78.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9f…d2b7backed Yes | 63c | 77.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 18c | 77.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 75.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 52c | 74.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a57…231cbacked Yes | 48c | 73.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes | 52c | 71.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 38c | 71.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 80c | 70.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 50c | 69.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 40c | 68.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 44c | 64.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed Yes | 62c | 64.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 51c | 64.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 80c | 62.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 62.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 48c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 40c | 58.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 67c | 55.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 50c | 52.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 52.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 70c | 51.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 62c | 50.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…c9bfbacked No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 25c | 49.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed39…a454backed Yes | 57c | 48.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 51c | 48.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 48c | 47.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.