TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f20…12c3backed No30c627.09$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.434,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No5c602.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2822945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No16c575.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8553925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No30c558$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.125,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c474.41$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.068,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes43c459.4$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.12,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb7…91c4backed No27c390.41$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.364571.1%32 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes78c366.49$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.945,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No41c362.32$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No34c354.26$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.342,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes50c353$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.475427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked No4c319$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.339346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes64c312.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2917135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No31c296$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c274$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.584,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2534624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes75c241.16$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.134463.6%28 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No63c240.42$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1139966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes65c238.81$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.449634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes47c234.87$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.551,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No21c230.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.931,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No28c228.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3411038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No50c207$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.52,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No40c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75c1…22e4backed Yes52c199.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.991040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No10c186.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2538258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No30c184.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.863,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked No47c159.04$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.523435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c156.03$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.515,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes74c134.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.821428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes50c134.53$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.951,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No30c127.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.662,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c124.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.357,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No51c120$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5424539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d29…5111backed Yes63c110.49$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.96650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No60c109.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.522,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes67c108.87$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5252444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes53c103.87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.873737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes40c100.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes61c99.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes38c99.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9911835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes51c99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.514139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8850…d68dbacked No50c98.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.491947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes49c97.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd912…32a2backed No50c96.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.483240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c9…a2edbacked Yes53c94.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.44728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x781f…0884backed No46c94.09$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6012…900fbacked Yes53c93.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.974551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No52c93.59$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes43c92.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8318534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No16c92.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3361752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No40c91.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.215158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No51c86.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.931,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes49c86.33$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3310642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes49c79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.291,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No29c78.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4541258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f9f…d2b7backed Yes63c77.95$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No18c77.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6651553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No62c75.24$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6588973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes52c74.92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8137835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a57…231cbacked Yes48c73.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-73.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes52c71.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.41346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No38c71.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes80c70.95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4115570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7714040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No50c69.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8519353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No40c68.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1428737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes69c65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.151,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes44c64.71$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb58d…b858backed Yes62c64.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.57825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes51c64.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.36650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7248…90d9backed Yes80c62.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.635865.5%38 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes64c62.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3961249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No48c61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2827669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes64c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.389932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No40c58.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3739157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes67c55.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.256233.9%21 W · 41 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.753,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes50c52.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes70c52.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6661676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes70c51.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No62c50.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.258257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2472125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5434934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1814043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3044646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0f…c9bfbacked No47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes48c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No25c49.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3435058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed39…a454backed Yes57c48.94$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.94450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes51c48.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7511436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No48c47.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9443859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.