TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,222 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8dc1…100ebacked Yes23c939.45$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.0460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes23c873.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9131043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No80c842.91$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.414,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes17c657.01$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc440…6149backed Yes10c655$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.893426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c562.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.912,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes21c531.37$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes23c472.51$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.982,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes6c462.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes15c451.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes7c430.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.441,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes24c415.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015466.9%103 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes17c388.06$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.455427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes12c365.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.945,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No80c307.91$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.952,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes7c296$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.299425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes13c272.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.15944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes17c251.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8356434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes10c241.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.449,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes6c241.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8122945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1add…a268backed Yes25c217.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.825248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No76c198.36$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3689661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed Yes26c195.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1811926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes24c192.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.271,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes16c186.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9814222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes6c185.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.687,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c183.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes17c180.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.871,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6392…ab32backed Yes7c176.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No76c158$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3942976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c139$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.344,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c52…1411backed Yes27c136.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.314540%18 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c132.76$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.672,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes20c130.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7130813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c130.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.377,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75c1…22e4backed Yes21c130$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes16c126.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1716437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes22c126$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5617241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a57…231cbacked Yes15c123.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.01812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-73.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c118$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.723,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes24c115.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2914025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes19c105.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.737835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes14c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.532132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc293…c389backed No73c99.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53886.8%33 W · 5 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick70cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes16c99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.714139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c96$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.323,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes12c89.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1135133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes21c87.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.461,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No76c86.35$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.521,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked No74c84.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.724037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes14c83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4646452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b7…cab7backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaac3…6ea4backed Yes26c74.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes23c71.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.543941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes22c66.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No78c66.55$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes26c64.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No80c60.85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.174067.5%27 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes24c55.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.121,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a0a…8f66backed No74c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.251747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes23c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.914926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes23c53.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3718814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.759,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes20c50.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1756131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1316626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.511835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6527771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes23c49.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No73c49.81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4350860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No76c47.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3619353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d2…27cdbacked Yes24c41.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbce1…77dbbacked Yes26c41.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.731625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No78c39.31$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5938258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c6…be53backed Yes27c38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.261838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No74c35.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.129634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No75c32.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No73c32.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8316863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.152,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No76c29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.961,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.430859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.754,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.693,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba6e…e245backed No78c23.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.138676.7%66 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3329…6c52backed No77c20.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.692441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.544553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a85ebacked No79c19.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.995468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a17…c24fbacked No75c17.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.272373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No72c16.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5150373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x737d…d0febacked No74c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.166662.1%41 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6012…900fbacked No77c14.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.264551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeaf…9ce1backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.53470.6%24 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.