TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9999…0654backed Yes1c1,154$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes8c731.39$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8857614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes9c599.35$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.099425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c462.02$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.214,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes10c456.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.559634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe7f…7428backed Yes21c430.79$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.48123.5%19 W · 62 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a04…c853backed No79c404.32$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.023450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes12c299.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb07…d516backed Yes12c277.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes14c264.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.821,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes12c256.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7510053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6012…900fbacked Yes20c247.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes20c231.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9924466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes16c224.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes21c222.3$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes17c212.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.181,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c201.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.967,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c198.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.081,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No76c194.27$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c187.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.259,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes22c174.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0525839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed Yes25c168.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2111926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No78c167.16$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2915570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes9c166.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes10c156.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.873,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c155.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes28c148.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No77c129.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8242976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No77c128.13$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.741,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes11c126.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1427421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…5624backed Yes22c113.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.11728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c110.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.117,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6a57…231cbacked Yes28c106.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-73.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes15c104.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0725742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes24c104.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8266926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes16c102.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes20c100.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8114025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.992828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes24c98.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.174139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No79c95.87$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.951,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes25c95.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2418534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No79c94.71$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3116764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes14c93.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes16c90.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6316626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3329…6c52backed Yes22c89.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.942441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes23c88.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes23c88.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe196…b2b8backed Yes22c85.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7315454.5%84 W · 70 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes25c80.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.712528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No77c78.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2724736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes26c76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7633139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No67c73.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes24c72.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.341,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63bd…3480backed Yes24c71.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick21cpaid+192.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No77c69.44$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.974,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c67.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.661,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes29c66.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f6…85e9backed No77c65.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.18067.5%54 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes24c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a9…4b39backed No80c52.59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.591450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes20c52.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4693837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcde6…040fbacked Yes21c52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8947…4635backed No77c51.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.013775.7%28 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+45.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf794…aba2backed Yes22c50.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.012152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes21c50.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7142643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c50.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.955,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes23c49.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68e…a093backed Yes27c48.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139530.5%29 W · 66 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No69c48.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.894065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes23c47.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e4…b4dabacked No75c47.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.14571.1%32 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.18,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c52…1411backed Yes30c45.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.434540%18 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes28c42.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b53…b786backed Yes25c40.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No77c37.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.544659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes28c36.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No70c35.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.891,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No75c33.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.419353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes34c32.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7717033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc67f…5115backed Yes35c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210850%54 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No68c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2438758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb7…91c4backed No79c26.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.734571.1%32 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.722,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No77c24.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.754,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No78c24.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5828648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…253abacked No78c23.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1615152.3%79 W · 72 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No78c22.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No79c20.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.421,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c19.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.339,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No74c17.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6852155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.