TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Predators vs. Kraken

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Predatorsof Predators, Kraken
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,101,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,101,615 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Predators51c317,025$161,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155,342.4719848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Kraken50c238,157$118,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118,078.1967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Kraken47c94,003$44,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,035.7240351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Predators50c77,486$38,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,852.1851550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Predators50c60,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,000.1748545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kraken49c57,064$28,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,092.571,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Kraken53c35,377$18,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,747.291,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Predators50c25,389$12,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,694.6948549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Kraken49c19,127$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,40040356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kraken50c17,507$8,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,678.51,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Predators50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000.0461748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Kraken52c8,000$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,159.9750049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Predators47c6,360$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,370.851452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Predators47c6,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,18019051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Kraken50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Kraken50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00021755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Kraken44c5,387$2,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.6560337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Predators48c5,010$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,605.3533243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Predators49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.127243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kraken50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.9989547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Predators47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.461,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Predators49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.8485250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kraken51c4,012$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.031,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Kraken50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Kraken49c3,985$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.5633151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Predators54c3,832$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.5342254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Predators21c3,755$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,966.2312838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Predators50c3,636$1,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.6961950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Kraken49c3,500$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71527048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Predators50c3,473$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.345261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Predators47c3,166$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.1811553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5422…76a4backed Kraken50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Kraken41c2,948$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.827448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Kraken51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kraken35c2,914$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.712,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Kraken52c2,853$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.4260249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Predators73c2,733$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.461,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kraken50c2,621$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.812,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Kraken50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2504450%22 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Kraken50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kraken51c2,222$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.2291945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Predators47c2,181$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.21,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kraken51c2,144$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.671,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Predators47c2,144$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.1589249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf958…5a02backed Kraken27c2,071$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.161450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kraken46c2,009$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.32,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e5…b405backed Kraken53c1,995$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.351346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ac7…d09ebacked Predators47c1,995$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.351163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b08…24eebacked Predators47c1,995$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.351258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cbf…ffb8backed Kraken53c1,995$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.351250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd27…6629backed Predators47c1,995$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.351080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+59.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdaf3…7461backed Kraken53c1,995$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.351060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…b74abacked Kraken53c1,990$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.71250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a4…5332backed Kraken53c1,990$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.71154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec7…5446backed Predators47c1,990$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.71266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ff4…d3b1backed Predators47c1,990$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.71361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71a1…d0c9backed Predators47c1,985$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.051172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6137…f2b4backed Kraken53c1,985$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.051258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eba…d125backed Kraken53c1,985$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.051353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ff…19e8backed Predators47c1,985$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.051172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4605…d0babacked Kraken53c1,985$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.051241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b2d…5ac0backed Predators47c1,985$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.051050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2092…6dfdbacked Kraken53c1,980$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5800…566fbacked Predators47c1,980$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.41080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+59.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5fa…2dddbacked Kraken53c1,975$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.751361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80f1…503dbacked Predators47c1,975$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.751154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x556a…3be1backed Kraken53c1,975$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.751353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde2e…4591backed Kraken53c1,975$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.751450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf058…984fbacked Predators47c1,975$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.751163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x258f…ef00backed Predators47c1,975$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.75850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8294…0deabacked Predators47c1,970$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.1988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+71.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdeaf…707dbacked Kraken53c1,970$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.11346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb42f…f94dbacked Kraken53c1,970$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.1977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+49.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cce…f0e8backed Predators47c1,970$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.11050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b51…4aa7backed Kraken53c1,970$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6448…fe8ebacked Predators47c1,970$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.11060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0268…5b4fbacked Kraken53c1,965$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.451050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ff…e162backed Predators47c1,965$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.451154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49cd…834abacked Kraken53c1,965$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.451650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb30…28d3backed Predators47c1,965$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.451172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+43%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab6d…3e30backed Kraken53c1,960$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe8…e0a1backed Predators47c1,960$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4c…b8a9backed Kraken53c1,955$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.151361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc37a…cf75backed Kraken53c1,955$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.151250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e54…6f79backed Predators47c1,955$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.151090%9 W · 1 L+4.0wins+0.40per pick51cpaid+82.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xcffe…6604backed Predators47c1,955$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.151154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0278…4c1cbacked Kraken53c1,955$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.151546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e5…ae39backed Predators47c1,955$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.151050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ce…37a7backed Predators47c1,950$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.51080%8 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c38…a4c7backed Kraken53c1,950$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0048…70bfbacked Predators47c1,945$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.851154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eaa…2ad3backed Kraken53c1,945$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.851145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb94…044cbacked Predators47c1,935$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.551154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2be…e387backed Kraken53c1,935$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.551154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…e1d9backed Kraken53c1,935$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.551361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7047…8a7dbacked Predators47c1,935$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.551172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x048c…914cbacked Kraken53c1,930$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.91050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc7…2737backed Predators47c1,930$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.91266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ba…ee9abacked Kraken53c1,930$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.91181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick52cpaid+60.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x425c…00abbacked Predators47c1,930$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.91070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+31.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.