NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kraken (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4c923271d48e428b9e0f7a744c4d31450013bcaecda543edb2a8237a6ba286c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Predatorsof Kraken, Predators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,302 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Predators | 70c | 1,340$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.99 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Kraken | 31c | 808$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.48 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Kraken | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Kraken | 30c | 722$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.33 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Predators | 69c | 564$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.84 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Predators | 69c | 244$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Predators | 71c | 225.62$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Kraken | 30c | 183.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Predators | 68c | 152.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Predators | 70c | 86.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Kraken | 29c | 77.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kraken | 29c | 44.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Kraken | 31c | 33.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Predators | 71c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Predators | 70c | 22.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)this page
- Predators vs. KrakenPredators won
- Predators vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Predators vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Under won
- Predators vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Predators (-1.5)Predators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.