Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ee31d899f49020a3dc761633af231853e36c1f792c0467410e5ce200c32371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47b0…2992backed No | 9c | 788.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 171.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 166.74$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 22c | 160.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 77c | 108.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 79c | 71.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 18c | 69.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 29c | 63.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 58.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 33c | 55.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 55.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 77c | 54.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 53.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 45.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked Yes | 33c | 43.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 43.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 68c | 42.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 38.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 47c | 34.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 32.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 65c | 31.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 50c | 28.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 27.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 73c | 22.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 69c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.