TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Flames

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flamesof Lightning, Flames
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$505,342

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,342 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 622 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Flames39c142,576$55,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,235.1967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flames39c37,682$14,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,985.971,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning61c34,135$20,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,835.921,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Lightning56c32,054$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00012835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning61c23,000$13,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,989.2261950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning61c20,988$12,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,773.061,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Flames39c20,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,199.998657%49 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flames49c18,974$9,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,697.4289636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Lightning52c16,286$8,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,433.641850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lightning61c13,077$7,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,976.9761953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Lightning61c13,050$7,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,960.551452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Flames52c12,848$6,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,173.9627448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lightning56c12,811$7,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,195.5275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf83…b4a7backed Lightning61c11,811$7,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,246.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Flames70c11,259$7,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.491,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Flames43c9,870$4,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,626.1744848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lightning61c7,766$4,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,769.661748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lightning61c7,436$4,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,503.9845751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Lightning61c5,928$3,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,616.082564%16 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning61c5,358$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,262.732,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Lightning61c5,234$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,193.01955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Lightning61c5,200$3,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1725350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Flames39c5,200$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,171.9915749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning60c5,052$3,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,030.9521755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Flames64c5,032$3,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.072,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Lightning61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0506640.9%27 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Flames70c4,875$3,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.111,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…b34bbacked Lightning35c4,781$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6662552%13 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Flames61c4,616$2,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.53,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lightning59c4,450$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.3148549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Lightning59c4,440$2,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,640.7552050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Lightning61c4,098$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5008544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Flames47c4,048$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.161,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning61c4,040$2,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,463.411,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Lightning26c3,827$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.389550.5%48 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames72c3,548$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.721,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning61c3,500$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.9860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Lightning24c3,354$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8007244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning62c3,253$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01785250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Flames54c3,236$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.6930259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Lightning32c3,168$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.1443743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb2c…bb26backed Lightning61c3,020$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Flames39c3,000$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,83083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning61c3,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.8743548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning61c2,800$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70827850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Lightning37c2,728$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.2836948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Flames40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Flames57c2,308$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.012,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2002…de36backed Lightning62c2,276$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4112458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Lightning61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Flames39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.991,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Lightning34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.994551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning37c1,984$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.0689547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Flames40c1,800$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0807354.8%40 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Lightning61c1,740$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.8462249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x808c…b77ebacked Lightning61c1,702$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.461330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Lightning61c1,700$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0374748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Lightning49c1,695$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.0528340.3%114 W · 169 L-24.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Lightning61c1,639$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Lightning61c1,639$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f4c…a6a1backed Flames50c1,613$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.421421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-56.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning60c1,523$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.5263249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Flames40c1,513$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.57755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning60c1,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9662346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning60c1,443$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.371,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d61…6f1abacked Lightning57c1,352$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-66.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Lightning61c1,311$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005541.8%23 W · 32 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Lightning61c1,311$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c6…75adbacked Lightning47c1,300$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.9740152.4%210 W · 191 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7f1…d867backed Lightning34c1,284$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.065969.5%41 W · 18 L+9.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+36.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Lightning61c1,274$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.291,53051.7%791 W · 739 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Flames79c1,180$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25158467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Lightning61c1,148$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7007648.7%37 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Flames49c1,139$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.522,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a13…db82backed Lightning60c1,136$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.17948.1%38 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Lightning42c1,058$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.173423.5%8 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Flames63c1,011$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.932,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Lightning61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61044551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Lightning63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6309853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0acc…9dc1backed Flames40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60025052.8%132 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Lightning61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61028447.9%136 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60032251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3edb…b9e1backed Lightning61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6102254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Flames77c987.5$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.61,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Lightning49c977.13$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.3211248.2%54 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Flames46c947.82$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.495049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf52b…905bbacked Flames46c931.06$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.791266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Lightning24c930$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.989355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Flames47c910.52$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.117755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Lightning8c900$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Lightning40c898.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.815534.5%19 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe8…6d01backed Lightning61c897$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.171450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Lightning32c894.95$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.8228842%121 W · 167 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Lightning33c874.98$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.747358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5178…01d8backed Flames40c870$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52215451.3%79 W · 75 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Lightning62c861$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.6536648.6%178 W · 188 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f3…e4a1backed Lightning61c835$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.351656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bc…1b77backed Lightning42c833.81$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35012258.2%71 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning62c800$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49622352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a3…ea7abacked Flames62c788$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.4823348.5%113 W · 120 L+16.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.