NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Flames
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d478dd6e5f1d97c61ce38796684e615af82c1e0401ab7ca2b1094801a823b0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Lightning, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $505,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,342 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 622 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Flames | 39c | 142,576$55,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,235.19 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flames | 39c | 37,682$14,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,985.97 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 61c | 34,135$20,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,835.92 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…4214backed Lightning | 56c | 32,054$18,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,000 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning | 61c | 23,000$13,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,989.22 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 61c | 20,988$12,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,773.06 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Flames | 39c | 20,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,199.99 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Flames | 49c | 18,974$9,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,697.42 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Lightning | 52c | 16,286$8,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,433.6 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Lightning | 61c | 13,077$7,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,976.97 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Lightning | 61c | 13,050$7,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,960.5 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Flames | 52c | 12,848$6,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,173.96 | 274 | 48.9%134 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Lightning | 56c | 12,811$7,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,195.52 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…b4a7backed Lightning | 61c | 11,811$7,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,246.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Flames | 70c | 11,259$7,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420.49 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Flames | 43c | 9,870$4,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,626.17 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Lightning | 61c | 7,766$4,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,769.6 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lightning | 61c | 7,436$4,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,503.98 | 457 | 51.6%236 W · 221 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Lightning | 61c | 5,928$3,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,616.08 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 61c | 5,358$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.73 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed Lightning | 61c | 5,234$3,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,193.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…cb97backed Lightning | 61c | 5,200$3,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Flames | 39c | 5,200$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,171.99 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning | 60c | 5,052$3,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,030.95 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flames | 64c | 5,032$3,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.07 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Lightning | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Flames | 70c | 4,875$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.11 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…b34bbacked Lightning | 35c | 4,781$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flames | 61c | 4,616$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Lightning | 59c | 4,450$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.31 | 485 | 49.7%241 W · 244 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Lightning | 59c | 4,440$2,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640.75 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Lightning | 61c | 4,098$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Flames | 47c | 4,048$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.16 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 61c | 4,040$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.41 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Lightning | 26c | 3,827$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.38 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames | 72c | 3,548$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.72 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning | 61c | 3,500$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.98 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked Lightning | 24c | 3,354$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning | 62c | 3,253$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…a137backed Flames | 54c | 3,236$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.69 | 302 | 59.6%180 W · 122 L | +31.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Lightning | 32c | 3,168$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.14 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…bb26backed Lightning | 61c | 3,020$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Flames | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.87 | 435 | 48.5%211 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning | 61c | 2,800$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708 | 278 | 50.4%140 W · 138 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Lightning | 37c | 2,728$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.28 | 369 | 48%177 W · 192 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Flames | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flames | 57c | 2,308$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.01 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…de36backed Lightning | 62c | 2,276$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Lightning | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Flames | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.99 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Lightning | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.99 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning | 37c | 1,984$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.06 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Flames | 40c | 1,800$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Lightning | 61c | 1,740$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.84 | 622 | 49.4%307 W · 315 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…b77ebacked Lightning | 61c | 1,702$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked Lightning | 61c | 1,700$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Lightning | 49c | 1,695$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.05 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Lightning | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Lightning | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4c…a6a1backed Flames | 50c | 1,613$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning | 60c | 1,523$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.52 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Flames | 40c | 1,513$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.5 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.96 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning | 60c | 1,443$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.37 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d61…6f1abacked Lightning | 57c | 1,352$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Lightning | 61c | 1,311$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Lightning | 61c | 1,311$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Lightning | 47c | 1,300$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.97 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Lightning | 34c | 1,284$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.06 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 61c | 1,274$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.29 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Flames | 79c | 1,180$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 584 | 67.5%394 W · 190 L | +93.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Lightning | 61c | 1,148$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Flames | 49c | 1,139$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.52 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a13…db82backed Lightning | 60c | 1,136$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.1 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked Lightning | 42c | 1,058$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.17 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 63c | 1,011$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.93 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Lightning | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9c…d2c1backed Lightning | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…9dc1backed Flames | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 250 | 52.8%132 W · 118 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Lightning | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…b9e1backed Lightning | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Flames | 77c | 987.5$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.6 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Lightning | 49c | 977.13$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.32 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Flames | 46c | 947.82$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.4 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…905bbacked Flames | 46c | 931.06$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.79 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Lightning | 24c | 930$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Flames | 47c | 910.52$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.11 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Lightning | 8c | 900$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Lightning | 40c | 898.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.81 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…6d01backed Lightning | 61c | 897$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Lightning | 32c | 894.95$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.82 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Lightning | 33c | 874.98$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.74 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5178…01d8backed Flames | 40c | 870$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Lightning | 62c | 861$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.65 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f3…e4a1backed Lightning | 61c | 835$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Lightning | 42c | 833.81$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning | 62c | 800$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…ea7abacked Flames | 62c | 788$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.48 | 233 | 48.5%113 W · 120 L | +16.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Flamesthis page
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.