NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a8f31c327abd1c2f96980d5b38a4cf1427a06c926b3e118685118413952456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Lightning, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,371 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Flames | 60c | 1,060$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.47 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Flames | 60c | 980.56$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.22 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Lightning | 40c | 744.93$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.97 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Lightning | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Lightning | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Flames | 60c | 470.07$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.81 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flames | 73c | 439.95$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 40c | 402.09$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Lightning | 41c | 397.54$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.93 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 35c | 358.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Flames | 59c | 256.56$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 60c | 256.5$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Lightning | 40c | 247.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Flames | 60c | 218.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Lightning | 40c | 214$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lightning | 38c | 187.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Flames | 60c | 155.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Lightning | 40c | 141.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flames | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Lightning | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Flames | 61c | 114.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Lightning | 40c | 113.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Flames | 61c | 111.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Flames | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Lightning | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Lightning | 41c | 85.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flames | 62c | 82.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flames | 62c | 63.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Lightning | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Lightning | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flames | 78c | 36.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Flames | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Flames | 59c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Flames | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Lightning | 55c | 32.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…2723backed Flames | 62c | 30.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Flames | 60c | 28.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flames | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Lightning | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…8732backed Lightning | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flames | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. FlamesFlames won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.