NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b41907b7dbcef91657653e5fd66427f72fb0dc42fa659ed3f7e79c5c318392f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,110 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 4,045$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.94 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 1,043$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.5 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 567.85$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.93 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 51c | 477.38$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.46 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 451$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.62 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Under | 51c | 346.6$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 333.38$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.48 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Under | 28c | 271.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 255.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 198.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 61c | 198.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 58c | 156.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 72c | 92.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 92.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 67c | 92.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 33c | 87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 71c | 86.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 77c | 79.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 76.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 40c | 67.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 39c | 58.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…b7a0backed Under | 24c | 52.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 49c | 50.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…682dbacked Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Over | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Under | 39c | 30.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Under | 47c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. FlamesFlames won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flames: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.